The role of wind stress and buoyancy flux in increased poleward ocean heat transport through the Nordic Seas under global warming

The role of wind stress and buoyancy flux in increased poleward ocean heat transport through the Nordic Seas under global warming | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The role of wind stress and buoyancy flux in increased poleward ocean heat transport through the Nordic Seas under global warming Zhuo Zhang, Fukai Liu, Yiyong Luo, Qi Shu, Kuncheng Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7024866/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Nordic Seas act as a critical conduit for poleward ocean heat transport (OHT), linking the subpolar North Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean. While climate models consistently project an increase in OHT through the Nordic Seas under global warming, the relative contributions of wind stress and surface buoyancy to this increase are not well understood. In this study, we apply an overriding technique within a coupled climate model to isolate and quantify the impacts of these forcings on the projected increase in OHT. Our perturbation experiments reveal that wind stress and buoyancy flux contribute comparably to the projected OHT enhancement, with wind (buoyancy) forcing being more important at lower (higher) latitudes near 69°N (77°N). Notably, wind stress enhances OHT primarily via a thermodynamical pathway by inducing subsurface warming in the eastern Nordic Seas, which intensifies heat transport by the mean Norwegian Atlantic Current. In contrast, buoyancy forcing enhances OHT through a dynamical pathway. This pathway involves anomalous ocean heat uptake, which reduces sea surface height in the central Nordic Seas. This reduction drives a cyclonic geostrophic response that accelerates the Norwegian Atlantic Current and enhances the northward inflow of warm Atlantic waters. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing both wind and buoyancy forcings in climate models for reliable projections of high-latitude climate change. Ocean heat transport surface flux Nordic Seas global warming Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major Revision 17 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Jul, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Jul, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 06 Jul, 2025 First submitted to journal 01 Jul, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7024866","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":481234928,"identity":"a6841748-fcc6-4c30-befe-57cdbee3f355","order_by":0,"name":"Zhuo Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Ocean University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhuo","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":481234929,"identity":"516bad00-3b86-40f7-be51-d50ffd710fdc","order_by":1,"name":"Fukai Liu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAoUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9nbGBoYPELYBcVp4DjM2MM4gUQsDAzMPaVqYmdukbSoOyzOwN2+TYKi5Q4wWxjbpnDOHDRt4jpVJMBx7RliLPUhLbtvhBAaJHDMJxobDRNpiCdIi/4YULYxgW3iI19Js2XMm3bCNJ63YIuEYMVrY2x/e+FFhLc/PfnjjjQ81RGiBAzYQkUCChlEwCkbBKBgFeAAA7TguZlGRBZYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0687-9568","institution":"Ocean University of China","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fukai","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":481234930,"identity":"9727edf6-97ae-438f-94a2-4d7a5cacfdbb","order_by":2,"name":"Yiyong Luo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Ocean University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yiyong","middleName":"","lastName":"Luo","suffix":""},{"id":481234931,"identity":"8c7f5f36-c800-460f-b6fa-dde590632d2c","order_by":3,"name":"Qi Shu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural Resources","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qi","middleName":"","lastName":"Shu","suffix":""},{"id":481234932,"identity":"3753d299-c976-4aea-8919-8e9530909770","order_by":4,"name":"Kuncheng Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Ocean University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kuncheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-02 03:57:40","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7024866/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7024866/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08147-7","type":"published","date":"2026-03-27T16:09:04+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105755923,"identity":"725ea141-dc72-4eff-86f2-dd4364a5dd82","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-30 16:33:07","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1542952,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"scriptsNordicSeasOHTsubmit.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7024866/v1_covered_958e54f8-fd38-4cee-9384-ab9724a148c2.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"The role of wind stress and buoyancy flux in increased poleward ocean heat transport through the Nordic Seas under global warming","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climate-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cldy","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climate Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/382)","snPcode":"382","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/382/3","title":"Climate Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Ocean heat transport, surface flux, Nordic Seas, global warming","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7024866/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7024866/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe Nordic Seas act as a critical conduit for poleward ocean heat transport (OHT), linking the subpolar North Atlantic to the Arctic Ocean. While climate models consistently project an increase in OHT through the Nordic Seas under global warming, the relative contributions of wind stress and surface buoyancy to this increase are not well understood. In this study, we apply an overriding technique within a coupled climate model to isolate and quantify the impacts of these forcings on the projected increase in OHT. Our perturbation experiments reveal that wind stress and buoyancy flux contribute comparably to the projected OHT enhancement, with wind (buoyancy) forcing being more important at lower (higher) latitudes near 69\u0026deg;N (77\u0026deg;N). Notably, wind stress enhances OHT primarily via a thermodynamical pathway by inducing subsurface warming in the eastern Nordic Seas, which intensifies heat transport by the mean Norwegian Atlantic Current. In contrast, buoyancy forcing enhances OHT through a dynamical pathway. This pathway involves anomalous ocean heat uptake, which reduces sea surface height in the central Nordic Seas. This reduction drives a cyclonic geostrophic response that accelerates the Norwegian Atlantic Current and enhances the northward inflow of warm Atlantic waters. These results highlight the importance of accurately representing both wind and buoyancy forcings in climate models for reliable projections of high-latitude climate change.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The role of wind stress and buoyancy flux in increased poleward ocean heat transport through the Nordic Seas under global warming","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-07-11 14:01:44","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7024866/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Major Revision","date":"2025-09-17T11:05:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2025-07-06T12:56:23+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-07-06T09:12:22+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-07-06T08:33:25+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Climate Dynamics","date":"2025-07-01T23:56:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climate-dynamics","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"cldy","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climate Dynamics](https://www.springer.com/journal/382)","snPcode":"382","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/382/3","title":"Climate Dynamics","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"e310878f-cc49-4902-b7d0-eb86cf1ed64f","owner":[],"postedDate":"July 11th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-30T16:30:01+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7024866","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08147-7","journal":{"identity":"climate-dynamics","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Climate Dynamics"},"publishedOn":"2026-03-27 16:09:04","publishedOnDateReadable":"March 27th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-07-11 14:01:44","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s00382-026-08147-7","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08147-7","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7024866","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7024866","identity":"rs-7024866","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}