Enhancing Species Distribution Models by Considering Dispersal Ability

Enhancing Species Distribution Models by Considering Dispersal Ability | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL Ecology and Evolution This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 7 January 2026 V1 Latest version Share on Enhancing Species Distribution Models by Considering Dispersal Ability Authors : Mengge Duan , Jiahua Xing , Xiudeng Zheng , Chao-Dong ZHU 0000-0003-0000-8814 , and Huijie Qiao 0000-0002-5345-6234 [email protected] Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176780344.48430814/v1 Published Ecology and Evolution Version of record Peer review timeline 229 views 121 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract Climate change is driving shifts in species’ geographic ranges, and understanding these changes is critical for effective biodiversity conservation. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the potential distribution of a given species under climate change. However, most studies focus solely on shifts in suitable habitats without considering whether species can reach these areas within a relevant timeframe. This omission often results in overestimation of future distributions and underestimation of extinction risk. Here, we designed an experiment to assess the impact of dispersal constraints on SDM predictions using ten species with varying dispersal abilities. We compared the potential future distribution of species under two scenarios: the first, incorporating its dispersal ability and the second, assuming unlimited dispersal. Our results demonstrate that ignoring dispersal leads to an overprediction of suitable habitats for species, which may result in underestimating species extinction risk or overestimating the risk range expansions by invasive species. This underscores the critical need to integrate dispersal dynamics into SDMs to enhance the accuracy of biodiversity projections. By incorporating realistic movement constraints, SDMs can provide more reliable predictions, leading to improved conservation planning, better management of invasive species, and more effective biodiversity conservation efforts under climate change. Supplementary Material File (sdm_text_20251229.docx) Download 1.36 MB File (supplementary_materials251223.docx) Download 1.71 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 07 January 2026 Peer review timeline Published Ecology and Evolution Version of Record 13 Apr 2026 Published Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Collection Ecology and Evolution Keywords ecosystem ecology ecosystem function method development statistical theoretical theory Authors Affiliations Mengge Duan Institute of Zoology Chinese Academy of Sciences View all articles by this author Jiahua Xing Nanjing University View all articles by this author Xiudeng Zheng Chinese Academy of Sciences View all articles by this author Chao-Dong ZHU 0000-0003-0000-8814 Chinese Academy of Sciences View all articles by this author Huijie Qiao 0000-0002-5345-6234 [email protected] Chinese Academy of Sciences View all articles by this author Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 229 views 121 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Mengge Duan, Jiahua Xing, Xiudeng Zheng, et al. Enhancing Species Distribution Models by Considering Dispersal Ability. Authorea . 07 January 2026. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.176780344.48430814/v1 If you have the appropriate software installed, you can download article citation data to the citation manager of your choice. Simply select your manager software from the list below and click Download. For more information or tips please see 'Downloading to a citation manager' in the Help menu . Format Please select one from the list RIS (ProCite, Reference Manager) EndNote BibTex Medlars RefWorks Direct import Tips for downloading citations document.getElementById('citMgrHelpLink').addEventListener('click', function() { popupHelp(this.href); return false; }); $(".js__slcInclude").on("change", function(e){ if ($(this).val() == 'refworks') $('#direct').prop("checked", false); $('#direct').prop("disabled", ($(this).val() == 'refworks')); }); View Options View options PDF View PDF Figures Tables Media Share Share Share article link Copy Link Copied! Copying failed. 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