Future flood risk exacerbated by the dynamic impacts of sea level rise

Abstract A growing concern of coastal communities is an increase in flood risk and non-monetary consequences as a result of climate-induced impacts such as sea level rise (SLR). While previous studies have outlined the importance of quantifying future flood risk, most have focused on broad aggregations of monetary loss using bathtub SLR-type models. Here we quantify, for the first time at the multi-state scale, actual impacts to coastal communities at the census block level using a dynamic, high-resolution, biogeophysical modeling framework that accounts for future sea-levels and coastal landscapes. We demonstrate that future SLR can increase the number of damaged residential buildings by 600%, the population of displaced people by 500% and the need for shelter assistance of up to 460% from present-day conditions. An exponential increase in flood damage associated with increasing sea level deems it essential for stakeholders to plan for plausible future conditions rather than the current reality.