Climate Policy Uncertainty: A weathervane for net electricity generation from renewable energy sources toward sustainable development?

Climate Policy Uncertainty: A weathervane for net electricity generation from renewable energy sources toward sustainable development? | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Climate Policy Uncertainty: A weathervane for net electricity generation from renewable energy sources toward sustainable development? Chi Wei Su, Yiwei Hu, Linjie Liu, Meng Qin, Santiago Budría This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9112266/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 4 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Using the bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality test, this paper investigates the relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and net electricity generation from renewable energy sources (NEG) in Germany. Empirical results show that the CPU can positively impact NEG. The positive impacts highlight that addressing the risks tied to CPU requires less reliance on traditional energy sources, thereby mitigating the environmental issues caused by increased carbon emissions and incentivising investment in renewable energy technologies. This process not only drives the energy transition but also contributes directly to sustainable development by promoting cleaner energy systems. This indicates that CPU shocks can propel the energy transition and the development of NEG. The theory of strategic growth options explains the findings. On the contrary, the negative impact of the NEG on the CPU suggests that scaling up NEG is beneficial for advancing climate change mitigation targets, stabilising policy frameworks, and alleviating risks tied to the CPU and the challenges of energy transition. Thus, reinforcing the NEG constitutes a strategic pillar for long-term sustainable development. However, a significant decline in NEG poses a challenge to the reliability of the electricity supply and escalates the risks associated with CPU. To achieve the sustainable development goals, Germany should increase its policy support for renewable energy sources to minimise the detrimental effects caused by the declining NEG. Meanwhile, electricity companies should also grasp the direction of climate policy and increase their investments in renewable energy sources, thereby gradually increasing the NEG. Net electricity generation German climate policy uncertainty Rolling window Time-varying Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 21 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 16 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 13 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9112266","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":627131245,"identity":"a76705ef-e426-46ac-87da-03e5373b8413","order_by":0,"name":"Chi Wei Su","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJAC5j8GNfX9IFZCAbF6eAqOMc5sAGkxIFrLB2bGDQdALGK08M9IfyYhYcDGbHx+deKHBwYM8vxiB/BrkbiRYyZhYCDDZnbj7WYJoMMMZ85OwK/FQDqHDaiSjcfsxtkNIC0JBrcJagE67IABs4TxjLObfxCpJcFMssGA2cCAv3cbcbZI3H9jbM1gcCxB4gbvNosEAwnCfuHvOf7wNsOfmgT+/rObb/6osJHnlyagBck+sEoJYpWD7TtAiupRMApGwSgYSQAAvrhADFokDd0AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9722-8105","institution":"Qingdao University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chi","middleName":"Wei","lastName":"Su","suffix":""},{"id":627131246,"identity":"fa2d1ebd-7a98-43a3-aa72-7cef38ba9aac","order_by":1,"name":"Yiwei Hu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Qingdao University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yiwei","middleName":"","lastName":"Hu","suffix":""},{"id":627131247,"identity":"5168478e-70e9-4d8a-b7ba-73ce1c96bcf4","order_by":2,"name":"Linjie Liu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Yunnan University of Finance and Economics","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Linjie","middleName":"","lastName":"Liu","suffix":""},{"id":627131248,"identity":"3119a44e-c86c-4f32-ab4c-b4d675665306","order_by":3,"name":"Meng Qin","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Qingdao University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Meng","middleName":"","lastName":"Qin","suffix":""},{"id":627131249,"identity":"9f9fc7e4-a8d0-494f-8690-f52d9bd897d3","order_by":4,"name":"Santiago Budría","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Universidad Antonio de Nebrija","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Santiago","middleName":"","lastName":"Budría","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-13 08:29:12","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9112266/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9112266/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108182948,"identity":"d84ee1e0-2fb9-48b8-a55c-7f764719994e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-30 08:59:42","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":546793,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Englishrevisednotitle.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9112266/v1_covered_979f764e-d301-4508-9063-fc8c5b52497c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Climate Policy Uncertainty: A weathervane for net electricity generation from renewable energy sources toward sustainable development?","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"climatic-change","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"clim","sideBox":"Learn more about [Climatic Change](https://www.springer.com/journal/10584)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://www.editorialmanager.com/clim/default.aspx","title":"Climatic Change","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Net electricity generation, German climate policy uncertainty, Rolling window, Time-varying","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9112266/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9112266/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Using the bootstrap rolling-window Granger causality test, this paper investigates the relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and net electricity generation from renewable energy sources (NEG) in Germany. Empirical results show that the CPU can positively impact NEG. The positive impacts highlight that addressing the risks tied to CPU requires less reliance on traditional energy sources, thereby mitigating the environmental issues caused by increased carbon emissions and incentivising investment in renewable energy technologies. This process not only drives the energy transition but also contributes directly to sustainable development by promoting cleaner energy systems. This indicates that CPU shocks can propel the energy transition and the development of NEG. The theory of strategic growth options explains the findings. On the contrary, the negative impact of the NEG on the CPU suggests that scaling up NEG is beneficial for advancing climate change mitigation targets, stabilising policy frameworks, and alleviating risks tied to the CPU and the challenges of energy transition. Thus, reinforcing the NEG constitutes a strategic pillar for long-term sustainable development. 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