Integration of a cellular automata to simulate snow cover with the Snowmelt Runoff Model to assess impacts of climate change on streamflow in a Mediterranean snow-dominated catchment

Integration of a cellular automata to simulate snow cover with the Snowmelt Runoff Model to assess impacts of climate change on streamflow in a Mediterranean snow-dominated catchment | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Integration of a cellular automata to simulate snow cover with the Snowmelt Runoff Model to assess impacts of climate change on streamflow in a Mediterranean snow-dominated catchment Jose David Hidalgo Hidalgo, David Pulido Velazquez, Antonio Juan Collados Lara This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7207404/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Mountain snowpacks are key components of surface water resources as snowmelt significantly contributes to streamflow and serves as essential indicators of climate change and variability. Accurate estimation of snowmelt-induced streamflow and assessment of its potential response to climate change are therefore essential for effective water resources planning and management. This study presents a new coupled modeling framework that integrates a cellular automata model (CAM) to simulate snow cover area (SCA) with the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) to simulate daily streamflow. The model was applied to assess the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainty on SCA and streamflow in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment. Four local climate scenarios were developed from an ensemble of nine downscaled Regional Climate Models (RCMs), assuming two warming levels for Spain (1.5 ºC and 3.0 ºC). The CAM–SRM framework was calibrated and validated using precipitation and temperature data from the AEMET 5 km gridded product for the period 2000–2020. Under future climate conditions, the model projects a substantial decrease in SCA and a two-month shorter snow season in warmer scenarios. An earlier onset of peak flows is also expected, along with a projected decline in mean annual streamflow of 19.4 – 32.9 %. These results indicate significant changes in the hydrological regime driven by climate change. The proposed modeling framework proves effective for reproducing snowmelt-driven streamflow dynamics in snow-dominated catchments and offers valuable insights for future water resources planning and management in mountainous regions. Climate change impact streamflow snow cover area Snowmelt-Runoff Model cellular automata model Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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