Optimizing Disruption Strategies for Quota-Exploiting Surrogate Smuggling: A Differential Game Analysis of Risk Avoidance Criminal Network

Optimizing Disruption Strategies for Quota-Exploiting Surrogate Smuggling: A Differential Game Analysis of Risk Avoidance Criminal Network | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Optimizing Disruption Strategies for Quota-Exploiting Surrogate Smuggling: A Differential Game Analysis of Risk Avoidance Criminal Network Yuqing Guo, Mengjie Liao, Jian Zhang, Yuan Ni This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7541830/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The ongoing implementation of Quota-Exploiting Surrogate Smuggling has fueled the escalation of illicit activities such as the unauthorized sale, resale, and misuse of duty-free shopping quotas and allowances for personal use. These practices pose a severe threat to national fiscal security and market order, necessitating urgent and effective governance strategies. To address the challenges of Quota-Exploiting Surrogate Smuggling, this study integrates risk aversion theory to overcome the fully rational assumption of traditional differential game models. It constructs a Multi-Phase Dynamic Decision-Making Model for Quota-Exploiting Surrogate Smuggling Chain System from the perspective of offenders. This approach breaks the cognitive limitations of law enforcement perspectives on the progressive organizational evolution within smuggling chains. Based on theoretical deduction, the equilibrium state of the smuggling chain system across multiple phases is derived. Combined with case analysis, this reveals the actual decision-making evolution path and governance entry points of the smuggling chain system. The study indicates: the Quota-Exploiting Surrogate Smuggling Chain ultimately converges stably to the Localized Collusive Decision-Making Phase. Risk avoidance preferences among illegal entities can suppress the smuggling dividends generated by Localized Collusive Coalition and compress the accumulation cycle of illicit profits. Strengthening cost constraints induces systematic attenuation in smuggling efforts across all illegal entities, with Quota Sellers exhibiting the highest sensitivity to risk costs and criminal costs. The study proposes governance optimization strategies across three dimensions—hierarchical management, credit supervision, and differentiated law enforcement—offering valuable insights for effectively addressing Quota-Exploiting Surrogate Smuggling. Social science/Criminology Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing Off-Island Duty-Free Policy Quota-Exploiting Surrogate Smuggling risk avoidance crime governance Multi-Phase Dynamic Decision-Making Model Differential game Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files Rawdata.zip Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7541830","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":523651890,"identity":"9931b86d-674d-41ee-8301-cd62e6ed14f4","order_by":0,"name":"Yuqing Guo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Beijing Information Science \u0026 Technology University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yuqing","middleName":"","lastName":"Guo","suffix":""},{"id":523651891,"identity":"393249ae-1ce6-4e65-85ba-803013b8c3df","order_by":1,"name":"Mengjie 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These practices pose a severe threat to national fiscal security and market order, necessitating urgent and effective governance strategies. To address the challenges of Quota-Exploiting Surrogate Smuggling, this study integrates risk aversion theory to overcome the fully rational assumption of traditional differential game models. It constructs a Multi-Phase Dynamic Decision-Making Model for Quota-Exploiting Surrogate Smuggling Chain System from the perspective of offenders. This approach breaks the cognitive limitations of law enforcement perspectives on the progressive organizational evolution within smuggling chains. Based on theoretical deduction, the equilibrium state of the smuggling chain system across multiple phases is derived. Combined with case analysis, this reveals the actual decision-making evolution path and governance entry points of the smuggling chain system. The study indicates: the Quota-Exploiting Surrogate Smuggling Chain ultimately converges stably to the Localized Collusive Decision-Making Phase. Risk avoidance preferences among illegal entities can suppress the smuggling dividends generated by Localized Collusive Coalition and compress the accumulation cycle of illicit profits. Strengthening cost constraints induces systematic attenuation in smuggling efforts across all illegal entities, with Quota Sellers exhibiting the highest sensitivity to risk costs and criminal costs. 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