A Structural Equation Model Identifying the Factors Shaping the Future of Rail

During the latest years before Covid-19, the EU-27 rail sector, experienced a slight but steady increase of demand due to several factors which fostered users’ choice. Indeed, several factors contributed to its growth, such as the increase of tourism, the development of new and sophisticated technologies, such as investments in High-Speed Rail systems, the urbanization, the increase of environmental awareness. Such demand increase has been especially clear in Italy, mainly due to the new national High Speed Rail Network realized between 2008 and 2018. However, due to the pandemic, the rail sector has significantly suffered a dramatic reduction of travel demand and this paper aims at proposing a methodology aimed at identifying the key areas which will affect the rail sector in the coming years.  Indeed, six key areas have been introduced where changes are expected, and they are: Lifestyle, Territories, Energy and Environment, New Technologies, Transport governance and Economy. Identifying the measures to be adopted for rail actors to survive and prosper represents the focus of this paper.  To do that, a survey has been designed and a questionnaire has been first submitted for a piloting and then to a sample of employees of Ferrovie dello Stato Italiane (one of the rail operators in Italy). Then, with the support of the Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach, the ranking of the factors (defining priorities) has been identified, so that the factors driving the future of rail has been shaped.