Ensemble distribution model of Muga Silkworm (Antheraea assamensis) and its primary host plant Soalu (Litsea monopetala) in defined climate space

Ensemble distribution model of Muga Silkworm (Antheraea assamensis) and its primary host plant Soalu (Litsea monopetala) in defined climate space | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Ensemble distribution model of Muga Silkworm (Antheraea assamensis) and its primary host plant Soalu (Litsea monopetala) in defined climate space Kuladip Sarma, Vivek Chetry, Amal Bawri, Keshob Jyoti Borah, Bulbuli Khanikor, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4771992/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Muga silkworm is one of the most economically and culturally important insect found in northeastern region and has immense future potential for entrepreneurship development owing to its sericogenic nature. The distribution of Muga SilkWorm (MSW) in wild are extremely important determinant for rearing a disease resistant domesticated variety that can significantly improve the yield of the later in terms of silk production. This paper aims to explore the distribution of the wild MSW in northeastern part of India in connection with the distribution of its primary host plant viz., Litsea monopetala Soalu in wild. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used to know the potential distribution of MSW in historical climate scenario and also the impact of future climate has been assessed using a single climate model (CMCC-ESM2) with four different scenarios (SSPs). The climate space was defined in two dimensional space using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to simplify the models. Altogether two model algorithms were used to get the final ensemble model for both the MSW and the two primary host plants. The model performed for MSW was found to be good with average AUC value greater than 0.80. On the contrary, the model performed for Litsea monopetala was found to be excellent with average AUC value greater than 0.90. Similarly, the ensemble models performed using future climatic data under the CMCC model for MSW have shown AUC values within acceptable range (0.78-0.82), whereas, models of the host plant have shown AUC values in higher range i.e. within excellent model category (0.90-0.95). Thus, in this reduced climate dimension, the potential distribution of the MSW has also been compared with four different climate scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The overlapped potential area of both the MSW and its host plants in NE India has shown a very critical dynamics in future climatic condition projected for 2040-2060. Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate change ecology Biological sciences/Ecology/Ecological modelling Biological sciences/Zoology/Entomology Algorithm Bioclimatic Variables PCA Sericogenic SDM Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 01 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 27 Jan, 2025 Reviews received at journal 24 Jan, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Jan, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Nov, 2024 Reviews received at journal 04 Nov, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Sep, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Sep, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 28 Sep, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 23 Sep, 2024 Editor invited by journal 25 Jul, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 25 Jul, 2024 First submitted to journal 20 Jul, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4771992","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":342309753,"identity":"fb7a9617-73fb-414b-9e94-4befd678ad63","order_by":0,"name":"Kuladip 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