Regional Dynamics in Nigerian Politics: Voting in the 2023 Presidential Elections

The analysis of Nigeria's recent election suggests that voter decisions, influenced by ethnic and religious ties, economic conditions, and elite messaging, signal a more mature electoral engagement. Since transitioning from military to civilian rule in 1999, Nigeria's democratic journey has been full of challenges, fuelled by political exploitation of ethnic and religious divides. In this paper, we examine the influence of anticipatory tribalism on voter alignment and party strategies in Nigeria following the 2023 elections. Focusing on four presidential candidates, including two who split from the main opposition, we analyse ethno-religious dynamics and elite messaging in Nigeria’s evolving multi-ethnic democracy. Our findings reveal how speculative ethnic narratives shape electoral behaviour and alliances in Nigeria’s evolving multi-ethnic democracy.