Time-dependent efficacy of carbon dioxide removal via forest restoration

Time-dependent efficacy of carbon dioxide removal via forest restoration | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Time-dependent efficacy of carbon dioxide removal via forest restoration Yiqi Luo, Ning Wei, Hyung-Sub Kim, Haodi Xu, Susan Cook-Patton, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8929952/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Forest-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is widely promoted as a high-potential, nature-based climate solution, and its efficacy is time dependent because forest CDR follows the growth trajectory of aboveground biomass (AGB). However, this timing is rarely accounted for in CDR assessments, obscuring whether forest restoration can deliver meaningful CDR within 25–55-year climate horizons. Here we provide 1-km resolution, time-dependent estimates of forest CDR across the conterminous US, derived from 113,806 field-based AGB measurements from 74,048 plots. We show that the window for effective forest-based CDR is limited by age-related declines in tree growth. Forest CDR via AGB growth peaks within 9.4–31.2 years, then weakens as forests mature, falling to 1 MgCO2 ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ within 51.6–108.5 years. Rather than emphasizing full CDR potential, we quantify a more attainable target, achieving 50% CDR potential. This target is reached fastest in the East South Central region within 18.9 ± 5.6 years and slowest in the Mountain region within 75.7 ± 23.9 years. Ignoring time dependence causes IPCC to underestimate CDR in young forests and overestimate it in older ones. Because forest carbon sinks take decades to develop, early action is crucial for restoration to deliver meaningful removals on near-term climate timescales. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Earth and environmental sciences/Biogeochemistry/Carbon cycle Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files 3SupplementaryMaterial.pdf Supplementary Material of figures and tables Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8929952","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":603779542,"identity":"cbfc9340-4dd5-4c76-963e-857ff27c8ade","order_by":0,"name":"Yiqi 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