Beef trade enhancement could further reduce GHG emissions

Beef trade enhancement could further reduce GHG emissions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Beef trade enhancement could further reduce GHG emissions Fernando Orduña-Cabrera, Federico Frank, Sören Lindner, Aline Mosnier, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5874782/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The global food and land-use system significantly impacts planetary boundaries, contributing one-third of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and driving biodiversity loss. Trade, as a driver of economic development, has the potential to enhance sustainability through the integration of environmental and social standards. This study uses the FABLE-C model to evaluate the environmental impact of increased commodity exports on agriculture-related GHG emissions under various scenarios. Our analysis highlights that countries specializing in beef exports can expand production to meet global GHG targets, particularly for markets like China while maintaining import-export balance. Optimizing trade relationships based on synergistic interactions can enhance global sustainability while respecting national priorities and security conditions. These findings underscore the critical role of multi-objective trade frameworks in reducing emissions and achieving a sustainable global food system. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Decision making Sustainable development trade and environment food security GHG emissions SDGs FABLE-C Scenathon Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5874782","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":413590079,"identity":"5487fe74-0149-4465-9b85-54da4822d757","order_by":0,"name":"Fernando Orduña-Cabrera","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAxklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACAyC24WEjVUsakhYiNIO0HEbiE9LCL314m3RBzXkZPvbjDz8w1Ngx8M9vwK9Fsi+tTHrGsds8bDw5xhIMx5IZJI4RctUZHjNpHjagFoYcBgkGtgMMDMRp+XeOh43/+eMfDP8OMMgTpYW37QAPm0SCmQRj2wEGA0JaJHvYiq15+5KBWt6YWSQCGYbHEvBr4edh3nib55udvXx/+uMbH77ZyckdPkDAGhQANJ+HFPWjYBSMglEwCnAAALOcNLvWcetqAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8558-0053","institution":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fernando","middleName":"","lastName":"Orduña-Cabrera","suffix":""},{"id":413590080,"identity":"4a7c42d3-2edf-4dd6-b4ef-c7a9b59519e4","order_by":1,"name":"Federico Frank","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Federico","middleName":"","lastName":"Frank","suffix":""},{"id":413590081,"identity":"3ff8be54-c604-4903-b9fc-4d1cbb6b5e8a","order_by":2,"name":"Sören Lindner","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sören","middleName":"","lastName":"Lindner","suffix":""},{"id":413590082,"identity":"50f80b82-542c-4a6b-84a9-56c9ef548b66","order_by":3,"name":"Aline Mosnier","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8566-1593","institution":"Sustainable Development Solutions Network","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aline","middleName":"","lastName":"Mosnier","suffix":""},{"id":413590083,"identity":"ddc8d32c-4bc9-486b-94c7-68741b30ff83","order_by":4,"name":"Michael Obersteiner","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769","institution":"University of Oxford","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Michael","middleName":"","lastName":"Obersteiner","suffix":""},{"id":413590084,"identity":"2c5eaf45-a476-4768-b3ca-38584f3ad841","order_by":5,"name":"Valeria Javalera-Rincon","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8743-9777","institution":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Valeria","middleName":"","lastName":"Javalera-Rincon","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-01-21 16:41:41","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5874782/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5874782/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":79322919,"identity":"a2aab025-4f91-42c3-b43e-92f3632f4ad4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-27 04:49:31","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":822035,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"Beeftradeenhancement210125.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5874782/v1_covered_c60b7cae-54a1-43a6-bdbf-5a0cfc61e84f.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Beef trade enhancement could further reduce GHG emissions","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Sustainable development, trade and environment, food security, GHG emissions, SDGs, FABLE-C, Scenathon","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5874782/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5874782/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The global food and land-use system significantly impacts planetary boundaries, contributing one-third of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and driving biodiversity loss. Trade, as a driver of economic development, has the potential to enhance sustainability through the integration of environmental and social standards. This study uses the FABLE-C model to evaluate the environmental impact of increased commodity exports on agriculture-related GHG emissions under various scenarios. Our analysis highlights that countries specializing in beef exports can expand production to meet global GHG targets, particularly for markets like China while maintaining import-export balance. Optimizing trade relationships based on synergistic interactions can enhance global sustainability while respecting national priorities and security conditions. These findings underscore the critical role of multi-objective trade frameworks in reducing emissions and achieving a sustainable global food system.","manuscriptTitle":"Beef trade enhancement could further reduce GHG emissions","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-03-27 04:41:25","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5874782/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-communications","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"NCOMMS","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Communications](http://www.nature.com/ncomms/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"https://mts-ncomms.nature.com/","title":"Nature Communications","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Communications","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"9b326cbf-2c5e-421f-a57d-4518820b3cb1","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 27th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":44099717,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact"},{"id":44099718,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation"},{"id":44099719,"name":"Scientific community and society/Social sciences/Decision making"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-03-27T04:41:25+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-03-27 04:41:25","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5874782","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5874782","identity":"rs-5874782","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}