Urbanization will drive changes in the African food system and biodiversity through dietary shifts rather than through urban expansion

Abstract The rapid urbanization in Africa profoundly affects local food and ecological systems. According to earlier research, urbanization may cause food production and biodiversity losses as agricultural or natural lands are absorbed by expanding cities. Although land use displacement effects may potentially buffer agricultural production losses or lead to additional biodiversity losses, they are often overlooked. Moreover, effects of urbanization-induced dietary changes are rarely considered. To address this, we combined spatially-explicit projections of African urban expansion and observed urbanization-induced rice consumption shifts in a partial equilibrium model (GLOBIOM). We highlight the importance of displacement effects to identify potential food production or biodiversity issues accurately and argue for their integration in land-use planning and policymaking across spatial scales. We also show that accounting for urbanization-induced dietary shifts for rice increases estimated values in rice production, trade, and agricultural methane emissions and thereby underscore the need for granularity in future food demand predictions.