Precipitation consolidation decreases terrestrial water storage

Precipitation consolidation decreases terrestrial water storage | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Precipitation consolidation decreases terrestrial water storage Corey Lesk, Justin Mankin This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6793491/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Terrestrial water availability is a key determinant of human and ecosystem well-being. Aside from mean precipitation and evaporation changes, it is unknown how daily-scale precipitation intensification and consolidation impact hydrologic partitioning and the land water balance. Using satellite-derived terrestrial water storage estimates and multiple observational precipitation datasets, we provide the first observational evidence that precipitation consolidation decreases land water availability as strongly as total precipitation enhances it across all climates globally. A transparent land surface model recovers the observed effect and reveals that it arises from enhanced evaporation due to changes in hydrologic partitioning at the land surface. Projected impacts of warming-driven rainfall consolidation at ~2°C of warming shift the land surface to abnormally dry conditions for half the global population, independent of any total precipitation changes. Our results update understanding of the determinants of the land water balance, highlighting its sensitivity to the temporal character of precipitation, with implications for water availability. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files LeskMankinTWSGpSIv3.docx Supplementary information for Precipitation consolidation reduces terrestrial water availability Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6793491","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":466609586,"identity":"42d5eede-8b45-4ffa-b9dc-b88ff9a7f813","order_by":0,"name":"Corey Lesk","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA2UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYNCCAgYGCfYGIMPAglgtBkAtPAdADAlStEgkgFhEaOFv7334mMfAxl5y5vOrG34USABFuhPwapE4c9zYmMcgLXG2dE7ZzR6gwyTOnN2A30kSaWzSPAaHE+Skc9Ju8AC1GEjkEtTC/pvH4L+9nOSZtJt/iNTCxsxjcIBxtgT7sdtE2SJx5hiz5ByD5MSZPTlst2UMJHgI+oW/vY3xw5sKO3uJ48ef3Xzzx0YOGIb4tYAAEw+Y4jEAkwSVgwDjDzDF/oAo1aNgFIyCUTDyAADZ+kABlKtTYgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0868-4040","institution":"Dartmouth College","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Corey","middleName":"","lastName":"Lesk","suffix":""},{"id":466609587,"identity":"6865a857-b60b-4060-891d-5385429fd051","order_by":1,"name":"Justin Mankin","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2520-4555","institution":"Dartmouth College","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Justin","middleName":"","lastName":"Mankin","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-01 03:15:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6793491/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6793491/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":87077403,"identity":"515e8a1d-c47f-4893-8c3b-3716cde71b8e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-19 01:33:30","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":945901,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"LeskMankinTWSGpv4.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6793491/v1_covered_c08bf04b-438b-4341-bf81-fc3aa6abd553.pdf"},{"id":83980914,"identity":"23a8fa3d-5404-46f1-919c-f2343d5c0bef","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-05 10:02:05","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":2339482,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary information for Precipitation consolidation reduces terrestrial water availability","description":"","filename":"LeskMankinTWSGpSIv3.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6793491/v1/25cacc774399545ed0349871.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Precipitation consolidation decreases terrestrial water storage","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6793491/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6793491/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Terrestrial water availability is a key determinant of human and ecosystem well-being. 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