Future climate projection across Tanzania under CMIP6 with High-Resolution Regional Climate Model

Abstract Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges faced by developing countries due to lower adaptive capacity, with far- reaching impacts on agriculture. Adaptation is the fundamental option to reduce the impacts. Climate change projection for future with comparison to the past is investigated by focuses on utilization of outputs of high-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program (CORDEX-Africa) and Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP) from the world Bank Group. Mid-century (2040–2060) projections of annually, monthly, and seasonal of rainfall, temperature (minimum, maximum) under two emissions scenarios. Mid-century is considered as a critical time for adaptation measures. The Shared Social-economic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 under baseline period of (1991–2020) simulations. The future climate 2040–2060, departure determined with reference period 1995–2014 climate conditions. From the analysis, the result reveal that, across the country historical there’s significantly increase in temperature (minimum, maximum) trend. However, rainfall increased by + 63.2% not significantly. Projected 2040–2060 shows that, throughout the country will experience the increase of the temperature in the anomaly range from 1.4 ºC to 2.8 ºC under SSP5-8.5 emission scenario. Projected rainfall indicates that will be increased in the anomaly range from + 0.6% to + 6.3% and from + 5.2% to + 14.4% under both emissions scenarios.