Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on global urban expansion slowdown

Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on global urban expansion slowdown | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Social Sciences - Article Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on global urban expansion slowdown Bo Du, Lingyu Sun, Chen Wu, Liangpei Zhang This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3893976/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract In recent decades, the world has witnessed dramatic urbanization 1,2 . However, the COVID-19 pandemic has a great influence on global urbanization 1,3 . We still lack detailed information about the decline of urban expansion in different countries and regions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic 4,5 . Therefore, this study selected 468 representative cities, examining global urban expansion trends during the pre-pandemic (2018-2019) and post-pandemic (2020-2022) periods. The urban perspective reveals a mean 45.88% decrease in the urban expansion rate, with 46% of cities facing severe urban expansion slowdown. Cities in lower-middle-urban-area, high-income, and upper-middle-population groups are disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis of the relationship between urban expansion slowdown and anti-contagion policies identifies significant variations among countries. Germany, Mexico, and Italy experience more severe impacts on urban expansion under stringent policies, while China, India, and Brazil observe less effect. United Nations subregions, Eastern Asia and Northern America, with the largest urban areas, witnessed notable reductions in urban expansion due to the pandemic, highlighting diverse global impacts on urban development. The study estimates a 90,315 km 2 decrease in global urban expansion area during the post-pandemic period, constituting 46.38% of the projected expansion area in the absence of the pandemic. Scientific community and society/Geography Health sciences/Health care/Health policy Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementaryinformation.pdf Supplementary information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3893976","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Social Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":269941297,"identity":"79bc6981-c00c-4ea1-895b-eb6a42f01f25","order_by":0,"name":"Bo Du","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAApklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDCCAzwMDB8YDoCYBsRrYZxBshZmHpK08N3IPfjYtu1OYgN78zYJhpo7hLVI3shLNs5te5bYwHOsTILh2DPCWgxu5JhJ5247nNggkWMmwdhwmEgtliAt8m9I0cIItoWHSC2SZ94lG/b+O2zcxpNWbJFwjAgtfMdzDz74ceawbD/74Y03PtQQoQUO2EBEAgkaRsEoGAWjYBTgAQD2qD2OBN/SBQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Wuhan University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bo","middleName":"","lastName":"Du","suffix":""},{"id":269941298,"identity":"ef746c81-106b-4f12-8092-3ef0db502fb8","order_by":1,"name":"Lingyu Sun","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lingyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Sun","suffix":""},{"id":269941299,"identity":"5da4dda7-2890-4438-bb34-55fb9b4dfc3a","order_by":2,"name":"Chen Wu","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6461-8377","institution":"Wuhan University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chen","middleName":"","lastName":"Wu","suffix":""},{"id":269941300,"identity":"ae74f683-58e3-41ab-a9e5-c2e04dcf1a96","order_by":3,"name":"Liangpei Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Wuhan University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Liangpei","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-01-24 11:56:47","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3893976/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3893976/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":55199233,"identity":"1311f5d5-2778-4106-9fb0-3e48a37a5957","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-04-24 01:57:58","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1259717,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"ImpactofCOVID19pandemiconglobalurbanexpansionslowdown.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3893976/v1_covered_16c3126f-bdb9-4078-b48b-9c87a55cdacb.pdf"},{"id":55198832,"identity":"5a89a107-7ff4-4a21-9775-269c5a6de5b4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-04-24 01:49:54","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":15256032,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary information","description":"","filename":"Supplementaryinformation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3893976/v1/9efbf03668bd482b734ede61.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on global urban expansion slowdown","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3893976/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3893976/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eIn recent decades, the world has witnessed dramatic urbanization\u003csup\u003e1,2\u003c/sup\u003e. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has a great influence on global urbanization\u003csup\u003e1,3\u003c/sup\u003e. We still lack detailed information about the decline of urban expansion in different countries and regions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic\u003csup\u003e4,5\u003c/sup\u003e. Therefore, this study selected 468 representative cities, examining global urban expansion trends during the pre-pandemic (2018-2019) and post-pandemic (2020-2022) periods. The urban perspective reveals a mean 45.88% decrease in the urban expansion rate, with 46% of cities facing severe urban expansion slowdown. Cities in lower-middle-urban-area, high-income, and upper-middle-population groups are disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis of the relationship between urban expansion slowdown and anti-contagion policies identifies significant variations among countries. Germany, Mexico, and Italy experience more severe impacts on urban expansion under stringent policies, while China, India, and Brazil observe less effect. United Nations subregions, Eastern Asia and Northern America, with the largest urban areas, witnessed notable reductions in urban expansion due to the pandemic, highlighting diverse global impacts on urban development. The study estimates a 90,315 km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e decrease in global urban expansion area during the post-pandemic period, constituting 46.38% of the projected expansion area in the absence of the pandemic.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on global urban expansion slowdown","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-04-24 01:49:49","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3893976/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-cities","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"natcities","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Cities](https://www.springer.com/journal/44284)","snPcode":"44284","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Cities","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"01905720-6369-4944-ad4e-c246bd893826","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 24th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":28441708,"name":"Scientific community and society/Geography"},{"id":28441709,"name":"Health sciences/Health care/Health policy"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-04-24T01:49:49+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-04-24 01:49:49","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-3893976","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-3893976","identity":"rs-3893976","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}