Measuring poverty and socio-economic determinants of Sumatran elephant (Elephas maximus sumatranus) populations and conflicts in Aceh, Indonesia

Measuring poverty and socio-economic determinants of Sumatran elephant (Elephas maximus sumatranus) populations and conflicts in Aceh, Indonesia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Measuring poverty and socio-economic determinants of Sumatran elephant ( Elephas maximus sumatranus ) populations and conflicts in Aceh, Indonesia Andrio Wibowo This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6942842/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As one of countries which has the large tropical forests in the world, Indonesia has experienced serious animal-human conflicts and defaunation. One example is the population declines and conflicts between human and elephant. This study tries to extend and explore how the socio-economic and poverty dimensions impact Sumatran elephant ( Elephas maximus sumatranus ) population in Aceh, one of provinces in Indonesia that still has large elephant populations. The method used in here is mapping of data including deforestation, forest covers, B40 percentage, education indicator, elephant populations and conflicts. The results show the B40 percentage and population density have similar pattern with the deforestation, elephant conflicts and populations. High B40 percentages in western parts of Aceh are related to the absence of elephant populations even though there are vegetation covers in here. Tertiary educations do not have effect in reducing the human and elephant conflicts. This informs that the education curriculum should be revisited by emphasizing more on endemic animal conservation topics. Conservation Biology Aceh elephant conflict poverty socio-economic Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Introduction Approximately 0.44 million Ha of forests are being lost to deforestation every year in Indonesia. This contributes to climate change, habitat loss and defaunation. What are the driving forces for deforestation across Indonesia? Illegal logging, agricultural development, mining and infrastructure projects are the direct causes of deforestation. However, there are key drivers behind these activities which are often overlooked. In Indonesia, poverty is one of the most significant indirect reasons underlying deforestation across Indonesia, and poverty is keep increasing. The population across Indonesia is growing rapidly. However the population increases are not supported with the adequate resources. Huge numbers of family with number of children more than 2 do not have sufficient incomes. Indonesia itself has a large natural resource, which is rainforest. Unfortunately, the unsustainable management of rainforest and limited human resources to guard the forest have caused the rainforests have been logged. A fertile soil, vast forested area and weak governance, have attracted poor people to use the forest as sources of fast incomes. The activities of poor people in forest are ranging from swidden farming, logging to mining. The Fig. 1 , 2, 3 show how the poverty (percentage of B40 people) may contribute to the deforestation in Indonesia. Province (Fig. 1 ) and district (Fig. 2) level data are correlated with the deforestation rates (Fig. 3 ). Deforestation is not only the result of poverty. There are also underlying impacts of poverty for instance habitat loss and defaunation. The Sumatran orang utan (Nasution et al, 2018 ) and tiger have shown significant decline for a decade due to deforestation. Following those species, Sumatran elephant ( Elephas maximus sumatranus ) is also threatened. The elephant population has declined rapidly from 4500 individuals in 1985 to only 1700 in 2017. Aceh is known as the only province that still has large elephant populations. It is estimated that there is 500–530 individuals in Aceh or equal to 31% of total populations. Aceh is also known as the poor province in Indonesia (Figs. 1 and 2). Hence this study aims to investigate what the factors that most influence the elephant populations in Aceh province. Methodology The data in here were secondary data collected through literature reviews and retrieved from spatial data provider platforms. The coverage areas of this study were 20 districts in Aceh province, Indonesia (Fig. 4 .A). Deforestation and vegetation data The data were spatial rasterized layers. The deforestation layer was retrieved from Global Forest Watch platform while the vegetation cover layer was retrieved from Sentinel Explorer platform. Poverty and socio-economic data The data indicators were following the multidimensional poverty indicators that incorporate the aspects of health, education and living standards. In this study, B40 (poor people) percentages, population density (individuals/km 2 ) and numbers of high school students in each district in Aceh were collected. Those data were retrieved from Indonesia’s population census database managed by Agency of Statistic Indonesia. Elephant populations and conflicts data Elephant populations and conflicts data The elephant populations and conflicts data were collected through literature reviews. Data analysis The poverty, socio-economic and elephant populations and conflicts data were tabulated and mapped into the Aceh district layer map. The objective of this method is to compare the spatial pattern of poverty with elephant populations and conflict occurrences. The linear regression then used to model and predict the relationships of poverty, socio-economic determinant variables on elephant populations and conflicts with human. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to estimate which variables can be used to model the correlation of elephant populations and conflicts with socio-economic variables. The AIC was calculated as follows: $$\:\text{A}\text{I}\text{C}=\text{N}\:\text{x}\:\text{L}\text{n}\left(\frac{\text{S}\text{S}\text{E}}{\text{N}}\right)+2(\text{p}\text{k}+1\:)$$ Where N denotes the sample size, SSE = error Sum of Squares and pk = numbers of independent variables in model. Results and discussion Like other parts of forests Indonesia, Aceh has experienced deforestation. West parts of Aceh followed by east have been threatened by deforestation (Fig. 4 .B). This has reduced the area of dense forests (Fig. 4 .C). The patterns of deforestation in districts in Aceh are comparable to the poverty patterns. In Aceh, the high percentages of poor people were also in the west and followed by eastern parts (Fig. 5.A). The deforestation was also correlated with the population factors. North and eastern parts of Aceh have high population density (Fig. 5.B). The correlations of poverty and populations observed in this study were comparable with other results. The study by Miyamoto ( 2020 ) in Malaysia and Indonesia found that poverty is the strongest influencing factors of forest area reductions. This study also revealed that forest clearing is accelerated by population density and a lack of agricultural land, both of which are related strongly to poverty. The deforestation is related to the habitat loss, animal population decline and even the human animal conflicts. One of the declining species is elephant which has frequent conflicts with human resulted from forest clearing. A study in India (Puyravaud et al, 2019 ) shows how land use change could be among the major causes of crop raiding and elephant incidents. In Aceh, the human-elephant conflicts are keep increasing annually (Fig. 7 ). The conflicts were observed in most parts of Aceh covering districts in west, east and north (Fig. 6 .A). The southern parts of Aceh were having the lowest conflicts. The conflicts have impacted on the elephant populations (Fig. 6 .B). In 1999, there were populations observed in the eastern parts in Aceh Utara and Timur districts. However the human-elephant conflicts were escalated in this area. As a result in 2016 (Fig. 6 .C), the elephant populations in those districts were absent. The animal-human conflict escalations are closely related to the socio-economic-culture conditions. For example, local perceptions and belief systems on large carnivores are important determinants relating to human-predator interactions (McKay et al 2018). At large spatial scales, attitudes, beliefs and norms appear more important factors in defining human–tiger encounters (Struebig et al 2018). This study tries to connect how poverty and social determinants can impact the human-elephant conflicts. The poverty has positive correlation with the conflicts. The increase of poor people percentage will contribute to the conflict incidents (Fig. 8 .A). The increase of population density will also lead to the conflict frequencies (Fig. 8 .B). Interesting facts observed in this study is how the education has negative effect on the elephant populations and does not contribute to conflict reduction (Fig. 8 .C). This finding is comparable to other studies that found the education may have less effect on deforestation (Errhardt-Matinez, 1998 ., Godoy et al. 1998 ). Currently, it was theorized that the education is the key for the sustainable management and conservation. Though, this is not a case in Aceh. This finding may be related to the curriculum and contents of educations. It might be the curriculum has delivered less content on the biodiversity and conservation issues. Table 1 The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) Variables used AIC B40 percentage 16.39 Population density 51.00 Numbers of high school students 91.83 Conclusion To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study elaborating on the human-elephant conflicts using socio-economic determinants in particular South East Asian regions. In agreement with previous studies, poverty is the driving force of the conflicts. Poverty has limited the people's options for access to the resources, and competition for resources has led to conflicts. References Errhardt-Matinez, K. 1998Social Determinants of Deforestation in Developing Countries: A Cross-National Study. Godoy, R., Groff, S., O'Neill, K. 1998. The Role of Education in Neotropical Deforestation: Household Evidence from Amerindians in Honduras. Human Ecology - HUM ECOL. 26. 649-675. McKay J.E., St. John F.A.V., Harihar A, Martyr D, Leader-Williams N, Milliyanawati, B,, Agustin, I., Anggriawan, Y., Karlina, Kartika, E., Mangunjaya, F., Struebig., M., Linkie., M. 2018. Tolerating tigers: Gaining local and spiritual perspectives on human-tiger interactions in Sumatra through rural community interviews. PLoS ONE 13(11). Miyamoto, M. 2020. Poverty reduction saves forests sustainably: Lessons for deforestation policies, World Development, Volume 127. Nasution, A., Perwitasari-Farajallah, D., and Utami-Atmoko, S. S. 2018. Declining Orangutans Population in the Unprotected Forest of Batang Toru. Tropical life sciences research, 29(2). 77–87. Puyravaud, J-P, Gubbi, S., Poornesha, H.C., and Davidar., P. 2019. Deforestation Increases Frequency of Incidents With Elephants ( Elephas maximus ). Tropical Conservation Science. Struebig, M., Linkie., M., Deere, N., Martyr, D., Millyanawati, B., Faulkner, S., Le Comber, S., Mangunjaya, F., Leader-Williams, N., Mckay, J., St. John, F. 2018. Addressing human-tiger conflict using socio-ecological information on tolerance and risk. Nature Communications. 9. Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6942842","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":474358874,"identity":"7fde24ef-efc4-4f95-a838-482b464c1b71","order_by":0,"name":"Andrio Wibowo","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACNgYehgMMFRJybAzJB4B8CRmCWvjBWs7YGPMxpCWAtPAQ1CLZAFTD2JaWOI8hxwAkQFiLwY3cgwc+sB1mbGPP+fzqRo0FDwP74aMb8GvJSzg4g+cwMxvP223WOceADuNJS7uBV8vtHIPDPBKH2dgkcrcZ57ABtUjwmOHVYg/WAkRsEjnPjHP+EaEFYktCmgRQC/Pj3DZitNx/B/TLARsDNp5nZsy5fRI8bAT9cubs4Q8f/0nUz29Pfvw551udHD/74WN4tSADNgkwSaxyEGD+QIrqUTAKRsEoGDkAADnpStU2/TDmAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Universitas Indonesia","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrio","middleName":"","lastName":"Wibowo","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-21 05:40:26","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":true,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6942842/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6942842/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":85284407,"identity":"1f48ce1d-ab84-4625-a7e8-342617af88f0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-24 08:52:01","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":200656,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003ePercentage of B40 people in each province in Indonesia.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6942842/v1/09824ac0737d0be167a8cd59.png"},{"id":85284441,"identity":"e95df534-bb8a-4952-81cd-c19cf9d639b2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-24 08:52:02","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":153454,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003ePercentage of B40 people in each district in Indonesia.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6942842/v1/5e3b4bc1b64c84682c87ecb0.png"},{"id":85285583,"identity":"98f57638-9868-4847-a405-8ce30e81ec78","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-24 09:08:01","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":165692,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e30% tree cover loss in Indonesia (Global Forest Watch).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6942842/v1/5d8fab4b6d2d884f81c6dae8.png"},{"id":85284414,"identity":"3c73d354-f40d-4870-85f8-2843da4202c1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-24 08:52:01","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":334637,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e(A) 20 districts in Aceh province; (B) Deforestation rates in each district in Aceh; (C) Vegetation covers in each district in Aceh.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6942842/v1/599a547a55482417e65f93c1.png"},{"id":85284412,"identity":"53106e31-d3f6-4dce-9598-18338a7f87dd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-24 08:52:01","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":103941,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e(A) Percentage of B40 people in each district in Aceh; (B) Population density (individuals/km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e) in each district in Aceh; (C) Numbers of high school students in each district in Aceh.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6942842/v1/636090ad53c866ba9b8e4979.png"},{"id":85284419,"identity":"11323cf4-3b29-4059-b441-4a3795ec083d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-24 08:52:01","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":123906,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e(A) The numbers of people-elephant conflicts (2012-2017) in each district in Aceh province; Elephant population pockets in each district in Aceh province (B) year 1999 and (C) year 2016.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6942842/v1/cd90bb0d59042022b381c6fb.png"},{"id":85285250,"identity":"497ad91a-f9e8-4d9d-a639-39826173506e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-24 09:00:02","extension":"png","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":16365,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe numbers of human-elephant conflicts in Aceh province.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6942842/v1/bca03c6b0946b51a65c62cd9.png"},{"id":85284427,"identity":"0f66b5f5-4319-424a-b1a1-22ecc89c9b52","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-24 08:52:02","extension":"png","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":48185,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe linear model with Confidence Intervals of B40 percentage (A), population density in individuals/km\u003csup\u003e2 \u003c/sup\u003e(B), numbers of high school students (C) (all in x axis) with numbers of human-elephant conflicts (in y axis) in Aceh province.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6942842/v1/9fd9443e4ee559322fb74d66.png"},{"id":85286712,"identity":"47a847ea-9000-4e35-97fc-76bd7e6e50db","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-24 09:16:02","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1438933,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6942842/v1/fbb01fc6-75e2-4237-b5e2-f386ccefe31d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eMeasuring poverty and socio-economic determinants of Sumatran elephant (\u003cem\u003eElephas maximus sumatranus\u003c/em\u003e) populations and conflicts in Aceh, Indonesia\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eApproximately 0.44\u0026nbsp;million Ha of forests are being lost to deforestation every year in Indonesia. This contributes to climate change, habitat loss and defaunation. What are the driving forces for deforestation across Indonesia? Illegal logging, agricultural development, mining and infrastructure projects are the direct causes of deforestation. However, there are key drivers behind these activities which are often overlooked.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Indonesia, poverty is one of the most significant indirect reasons underlying deforestation across Indonesia, and poverty is keep increasing. The population across Indonesia is growing rapidly. However the population increases are not supported with the adequate resources. Huge numbers of family with number of children more than 2 do not have sufficient incomes. Indonesia itself has a large natural resource, which is rainforest. Unfortunately, the unsustainable management of rainforest and limited human resources to guard the forest have caused the rainforests have been logged. A fertile soil, vast forested area and weak governance, have attracted poor people to use the forest as sources of fast incomes. The activities of poor people in forest are ranging from swidden farming, logging to mining. The Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e, 2, \u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e show how the poverty (percentage of B40 people) may contribute to the deforestation in Indonesia. Province (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e) and district (Fig.\u0026nbsp;2) level data are correlated with the deforestation rates (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDeforestation is not only the result of poverty. There are also underlying impacts of poverty for instance habitat loss and defaunation. The Sumatran orang utan (Nasution et al, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2018\u003c/span\u003e) and tiger have shown significant decline for a decade due to deforestation. Following those species, Sumatran elephant (\u003cem\u003eElephas maximus sumatranus\u003c/em\u003e) is also threatened. The elephant population has declined rapidly from 4500 individuals in 1985 to only 1700 in 2017. Aceh is known as the only province that still has large elephant populations. It is estimated that there is 500\u0026ndash;530 individuals in Aceh or equal to 31% of total populations. Aceh is also known as the poor province in Indonesia (Figs.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e and 2). Hence this study aims to investigate what the factors that most influence the elephant populations in Aceh province.\u003c/p\u003e "},{"header":"Methodology","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe data in here were secondary data collected through literature reviews and retrieved from spatial data provider platforms. The coverage areas of this study were 20 districts in Aceh province, Indonesia (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e.A).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eDeforestation and vegetation data\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe data were spatial rasterized layers. The deforestation layer was retrieved from Global Forest Watch platform while the vegetation cover layer was retrieved from Sentinel Explorer platform.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003ePoverty and socio-economic data\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe data indicators were following the multidimensional poverty indicators that incorporate the aspects of health, education and living standards. In this study, B40 (poor people) percentages, population density (individuals/km\u003csup\u003e2\u003c/sup\u003e) and numbers of high school students in each district in Aceh were collected. Those data were retrieved from Indonesia\u0026rsquo;s population census database managed by Agency of Statistic Indonesia.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eElephant populations and conflicts data\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"Heading\"\u003eElephant populations and conflicts data\u003c/div\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe elephant populations and conflicts data were collected through literature reviews.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003eData analysis\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe poverty, socio-economic and elephant populations and conflicts data were tabulated and mapped into the Aceh district layer map. The objective of this method is to compare the spatial pattern of poverty with elephant populations and conflict occurrences. The linear regression then used to model and predict the relationships of poverty, socio-economic determinant variables on elephant populations and conflicts with human. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to estimate which variables can be used to model the correlation of elephant populations and conflicts with socio-economic variables. The AIC was calculated as follows:\u003cdiv id=\"Equa\" class=\"Equation\"\u003e\u003cdiv format=\"TEX\" class=\"mathdisplay\" id=\"FileID_Equa\" name=\"EquationSource\"\u003e\n$$\\:\\text{A}\\text{I}\\text{C}=\\text{N}\\:\\text{x}\\:\\text{L}\\text{n}\\left(\\frac{\\text{S}\\text{S}\\text{E}}{\\text{N}}\\right)+2(\\text{p}\\text{k}+1\\:)$$\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eWhere N denotes the sample size, SSE\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;error Sum of Squares and pk\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;numbers of independent variables in model.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"Results and discussion","content":"\u003cp\u003eLike other parts of forests Indonesia, Aceh has experienced deforestation. West parts of Aceh followed by east have been threatened by deforestation (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e.B). This has reduced the area of dense forests (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e.C). The patterns of deforestation in districts in Aceh are comparable to the poverty patterns. In Aceh, the high percentages of poor people were also in the west and followed by eastern parts (Fig.\u0026nbsp;5.A). The deforestation was also correlated with the population factors. North and eastern parts of Aceh have high population density (Fig.\u0026nbsp;5.B). The correlations of poverty and populations observed in this study were comparable with other results. The study by Miyamoto (\u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e) in Malaysia and Indonesia found that poverty is the strongest influencing factors of forest area reductions. This study also revealed that forest clearing is accelerated by population density and a lack of agricultural land, both of which are related strongly to poverty.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe deforestation is related to the habitat loss, animal population decline and even the human animal conflicts. One of the declining species is elephant which has frequent conflicts with human resulted from forest clearing. A study in India (Puyravaud et al, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e) shows how land use change could be among the major causes of crop raiding and elephant incidents. In Aceh, the human-elephant conflicts are keep increasing annually (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e). The conflicts were observed in most parts of Aceh covering districts in west, east and north (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e.A). The southern parts of Aceh were having the lowest conflicts. The conflicts have impacted on the elephant populations (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e.B). In 1999, there were populations observed in the eastern parts in Aceh Utara and Timur districts. However the human-elephant conflicts were escalated in this area. As a result in 2016 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e.C), the elephant populations in those districts were absent.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe animal-human conflict escalations are closely related to the socio-economic-culture conditions. For example, local perceptions and belief systems on large carnivores are important determinants relating to human-predator interactions (McKay et al 2018). At large spatial scales, attitudes, beliefs and norms appear more important factors in defining human\u0026ndash;tiger encounters (Struebig et al 2018). This study tries to connect how poverty and social determinants can impact the human-elephant conflicts. The poverty has positive correlation with the conflicts. The increase of poor people percentage will contribute to the conflict incidents (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e.A). The increase of population density will also lead to the conflict frequencies (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e.B).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eInteresting facts observed in this study is how the education has negative effect on the elephant populations and does not contribute to conflict reduction (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e.C). This finding is comparable to other studies that found the education may have less effect on deforestation (Errhardt-Matinez, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1998\u003c/span\u003e., Godoy et al. \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1998\u003c/span\u003e). Currently, it was theorized that the education is the key for the sustainable management and conservation. Though, this is not a case in Aceh. This finding may be related to the curriculum and contents of educations. It might be the curriculum has delivered less content on the biodiversity and conservation issues.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"2\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eVariables used\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAIC\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eB40 percentage\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e16.39\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePopulation density\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e51.00\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNumbers of high school students\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e91.83\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first study elaborating on the human-elephant conflicts using socio-economic determinants in particular South East Asian regions. In agreement with previous studies, poverty is the driving force of the conflicts. Poverty has limited the people's options for access to the resources, and competition for resources has led to conflicts.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eErrhardt-Matinez, K. 1998Social Determinants of Deforestation in Developing Countries: A Cross-National Study.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eGodoy, R., Groff, S., O\u0026apos;Neill, K. 1998. The Role of Education in Neotropical Deforestation: Household Evidence from Amerindians in Honduras. Human Ecology - HUM ECOL. 26. 649-675.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMcKay J.E., St. John F.A.V., Harihar A, Martyr D, Leader-Williams N, Milliyanawati, B,, Agustin, I., Anggriawan, Y., Karlina, Kartika, E., Mangunjaya, F., Struebig., M., Linkie., M. 2018. Tolerating tigers: Gaining local and spiritual perspectives on human-tiger interactions in Sumatra through rural community interviews. PLoS ONE 13(11).\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eMiyamoto, M. 2020. Poverty reduction saves forests sustainably: Lessons for deforestation policies, World Development, Volume 127.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eNasution, A., Perwitasari-Farajallah, D., and Utami-Atmoko, S. S. 2018. Declining Orangutans Population in the Unprotected Forest of Batang Toru. Tropical life sciences research, 29(2). 77\u0026ndash;87.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003ePuyravaud, J-P, Gubbi, S., Poornesha, H.C., and Davidar., P. 2019. Deforestation Increases Frequency of Incidents With Elephants (\u003cem\u003eElephas maximus\u003c/em\u003e). Tropical Conservation Science.\u003c/li\u003e\n \u003cli\u003eStruebig, M., Linkie., M., Deere, N., Martyr, D., Millyanawati, B., Faulkner, S., Le Comber, S., Mangunjaya, F., Leader-Williams, N., Mckay, J., St. John, F. 2018. Addressing human-tiger conflict using socio-ecological information on tolerance and risk. Nature Communications. 9. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Aceh, elephant, conflict, poverty, socio-economic","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6942842/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6942842/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAs one of countries which has the large tropical forests in the world, Indonesia has experienced serious\u0026nbsp;animal-human conflicts and defaunation. One example is the population declines and conflicts between human and elephant. This study tries to extend and explore how the socio-economic and poverty dimensions impact Sumatran elephant (\u003cem\u003eElephas maximus sumatranus\u003c/em\u003e) population in Aceh, one of provinces in Indonesia that still has large elephant populations. The method used in here is mapping of data including deforestation, forest covers, B40 percentage, education indicator, elephant populations and conflicts. The results show the B40 percentage and population density have similar pattern with the deforestation, elephant conflicts and populations. High B40 percentages in western parts of Aceh are related to the absence of elephant populations even though there are vegetation covers in here. Tertiary educations do not have effect in reducing the human and elephant conflicts. This informs that the education curriculum should be revisited by emphasizing more on endemic animal conservation topics.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Measuring poverty and socio-economic determinants of Sumatran elephant (Elephas maximus sumatranus) populations and conflicts in Aceh, Indonesia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-24 08:51:57","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6942842/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"15cd511c-7cc1-4765-8a63-bf96d80f8fd2","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 24th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":50378958,"name":"Conservation Biology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-06-24T08:51:57+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-24 08:51:57","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6942842","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6942842","identity":"rs-6942842","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}