Increasing cold-season dominance of European streamflow

Increasing cold-season dominance of European streamflow | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article Increasing cold-season dominance of European streamflow Wouter R. Berghuijs, Sebastian Carugati, Mira Anand, Benjamin Campforts, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8831964/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Seasonal variations in streamflow shape hydrological extremes1-3 and water availability for society and the environment4,5. In snow-influenced catchments, climate warming often shifts streamflow towards winter6-9, whereas streamflow-seasonality trends in rain-fed catchments appear more diverse10-12 and often remain unquantified. Here, we expose pan-European trends in streamflow seasonality of both rain- and snow-fed catchments using mass centers derived from directional statistics across 7911 catchments13,14 from 1980 to 2023. Streamflow in rain-fed catchments is centered in the cold season, with recent decades showing an intensification of this cold-season dominance. Conversely, snow-influenced catchments, characterized by late-spring and summer-centered flows, have undergone a recent attenuation of streamflow seasonality. Their systematic weakening in flow seasonality aligns with reduced snow fraction, diminished snow storage, and increased evaporative demand. Increasing seasonality in rain-fed streamflow arises mainly from enhanced evaporative demand and reduced annual precipitation, rather than from human-induced flow modifications or shifts in the seasonality of precipitation. These trends expose that, across Europe, water is becoming increasingly scarce during the warm season when societal and ecosystem demands are generally highest15-16. Ongoing snow loss, temperature rise, and precipitation shifts17-19 could sustain the increasing cold-season dominance of European streamflow as the climate continues to warm. Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8831964","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":592923096,"identity":"de208956-205d-4365-8ff7-b77e2ff27007","order_by":0,"name":"Wouter R. 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In snow-influenced catchments, climate warming often shifts streamflow towards winter6-9, whereas streamflow-seasonality trends in rain-fed catchments appear more diverse10-12 and often remain unquantified. Here, we expose pan-European trends in streamflow seasonality of both rain- and snow-fed catchments using mass centers derived from directional statistics across 7911 catchments13,14 from 1980 to 2023. Streamflow in rain-fed catchments is centered in the cold season, with recent decades showing an intensification of this cold-season dominance. Conversely, snow-influenced catchments, characterized by late-spring and summer-centered flows, have undergone a recent attenuation of streamflow seasonality. Their systematic weakening in flow seasonality aligns with reduced snow fraction, diminished snow storage, and increased evaporative demand. Increasing seasonality in rain-fed streamflow arises mainly from enhanced evaporative demand and reduced annual precipitation, rather than from human-induced flow modifications or shifts in the seasonality of precipitation. These trends expose that, across Europe, water is becoming increasingly scarce during the warm season when societal and ecosystem demands are generally highest15-16. 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