Unveiling the link between changing weather patterns and apple output in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India

Unveiling the link between changing weather patterns and apple output in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Unveiling the link between changing weather patterns and apple output in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India MANMEET KAUR, Dr. Arundhati This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4481221/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This paper includes the change in area, production and productivity of Apple crop in Shimla District of Himachal Pradesh. The goal of this paper was to look at the performance of apple crop in the study area over the last four decades to see if there had been any apparent change. There was a considerable increase in the area under apple crop from 13558.67 ha during the first period to 26114.4 ha during the last decade. The change in area over the years has been increased by 51.9%. There has been an increasing trend in the area from last thirty six years. This paper would aid in identifying the fundamental causes of such performance, allowing a broad assessment of future output potential. Further, it develops a correlation matrix between average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, average rainfall and average productivity of apple within the chosen time period. Based on the correlation it can be concluded that warmer temperatures may increase crop production. But, unusually high lowest temperatures may exceed a threshold. The relationship between climatic conditions and productivity has been highlighted by the fact that heavy precipitation corresponds with decreased yield, whereas average rainfall and lowest temperatures show very weak positive relationships. Apple Apple Productivity Climate Change Temperature Rainfall Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 Figure 11 Figure 12 I. INTRODUCTION The monsoonal climate of North India is typified by distinct summer and winter seasons. Due to varied climate, soil regimes and diverse agro-ecological ranges, North Indian landscapes have abundant opportunities to produce horticultural crops which strengthen the overall agricultural produce of the country [ 1 ]. Temperate fruits originate from locations which vary in specific climatic conditions, mostly grown in places where winters are distinctly harsh. These contribute to horticulture industry and are essential in food and nutritional security of the country[ 2 ] Horticulture largely comprises of fruits, vegetables, flowers and other ornamental species[ 3 ]. Additionally, aromatic plants and medicinal plants, root and tuber crops and mushrooms have come up as a core and significant sector of agri-horticulture [ 4 ].This entire sector of plantation crops not only contributes towards economy of the country, but also strengthens the nutritional security of the people. In India and throughout the world, apples are a fruit of significant economic value. The total number of apples produced worldwide in 2022 was 95.84 million metric tons, up from roughly 83.1 million tons in 2017[ 5 ]. China is the world's top apple-growing nation, with the US, India, and Turkey following closely behind. Even though India ranks third in the world for production, its exports still don't match its standing in the global economy. The production of classic types, the color and shelf life of the apples, the features of apple orchards, the overuse of pesticides, and the availability of infrastructure are just a few of the possible causes[ 6 ] India is blessed with a diverse range of soil types and agro-climatic conditions, allowing it to cultivate a wide range of horticulture crops in particular, as well as other crops in general. The cultivation of apple is mainly done in northern Himalayan areas, while the apples are the monopoly of hilly regions of India like Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttrakhand and Arunachal Pradesh.[ 7 ] About 89.16 percent of India's total area under apple trees and 96.57 percent of the country's total production are accounted for by the two significant states of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh [ 8 ]. As per the statistics Uttrakhand (2.70 tonnes/ha), Himachal Pradesh (4.45 tonnes/ha), and Jammu and Kashmir (12.25 tonnes/ha) have the highest apple productivity as shown in Fig. 1 . The top two apple producing Indian states are Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Apple is the principal crop grown in nine districts of Himachal Pradesh[ 9 ]. In recent years apple has emerged as the leading cash crop amongst fruit crops in the country. It constitutes 96 percent of area and 97 percent of production in the top two Indian states and once known for its best quality of apples in the country[ 10 ]. It constitutes the major part of economy of Himachal Pradesh [ 11 ]. Among all the fruit crops grown in Himachal Pradesh, Apple dominates in the area as well as in production. Once Himachal Pradesh was known for the production of finest quality of apple in the country, but now apple has become nonviable, unproductive, uneconomical and less profitable in many parts of the state [ 12 ]. Fruit growers in the state have observed variations in the climate over the years. The traditional Apple farming at present is under stress due to variation in the climatic conditions. Horticulture sector is the main constituent for the development in the state of Himachal Pradesh. Directly and indirectly this sector provides livelihoods for more than one lakh people of Himachal Pradesh [ 13 ]. The area under apple cultivation has increased substantially from a mere 400 hectares in 1950s to 11. 4 lakhs hectares in 2020s but fluctuation is observed in the productivity of the Shimla district. In the study period area under apple crop is 49840 ha in 1984 and 114144 in 2020 in Himachal Pradesh (Table 1 ). Considering the vital role that apple has in the economy of Himachal Pradesh, there is a need to study the production and productivity of the apple crop and mitigation practices to cope up with the adverse effects of climate on Apple crop[ 14 ]. Table 1 Area under apple crop from 1984–2020 in Himachal Pradesh Year Area (Hectares) Year Area (Hectares) Year Area (Hectares) Year Area (Hectares) 1984-85 21066 1993-94 29123 2002-03 27678 2011-12 35778 1985-86 21611 1994-95 30114 2003-04 28247 2012-13 37249 1986-87 21939 1995-96 31213 2004-05 29029 2013-14 37542 1887-88 22453 1996-97 31956 2005-06 29671 2014-15 38781 1988-89 23266 1997-98 32908 2006-07 30666 2015-16 39728 1989-90 23980 1998-99 33707 2007-08 31323 2016-17 40160 1990-91 25191 1999–2000 34465 2008-09 32195 2017-18 40566 1991-92 26754 2000–2001 35052 2009-10 33579 2018-19 40961 1992-93 27916 2001-02 35905 2010-11 34612 2019-20 41765 The climate in Shimla district, which is located in Himachal Pradesh's high hill wet temperate agro-climate zone, is primarily chilly in the winter and moderately warm in the summer. Throughout the year, temperatures normally range from 4.0°C to 31.0°C[ 15 ]. Summer temperatures range between 19.00C and 28.0°C, while winter temperatures range between l.00C and 10.0°C. The average monthly rainfall ranges from 15.0 millimetres in November to 434.0 mm in August. During the winter and spring, it averages roughly 45.0 mm every month, with 175.0 mm in June. The average total precipitation is 1575.0 mm which is less than other hill stations. Snowfall in this region occurs in the months of December to February. II. STUDY AREA The study area (Fig. 2 ), viz. the Shimla Municipal Corporation, is one of the oldest municipalities of India which extends between 31°04'01" N to 31°08' 19" N latitude and 77°06' 56" E to 77°13' 50" E longitude, encompasses an area of 27.58 km²[ 16 ]. Its average altitudinal height is 2012.30 meters above mean sea level (amsl). Shimla lies in the north-western ranges of the Himalayas [ 17 ]. III. MATERIALS AND METHODS The current study was conducted in the Shimla district of Himachal Pradesh (Fig. 2 ), India, which represent the region's mid-hill sub-humid agro-climatic zone (1985–2020). The secondary meteorological information for the climate variables (temperature and precipitation) was gathered from the records of the regional research stations of different districts and institutions (Agriculture University, Palampur, and Himachal Pradesh). After carefully reviewing and confirming the data in the research region, the database was constructed. Data on apple production and area for the corresponding time period was gathered from Shimla's Department of Horticulture. The maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, and apple productivity were used to calculate the statistical trends (xls. software). Various meteorological parameters were analyzed, correlated, and checked for any exceptions using historical measurements. Statistical tool built within the xls application was employed for the analysis. IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION In Shimla district an increasing trend has been observed in the area from last thirty six years. Change in area of apple crop in Shimla district has been shown in Fig. 3 which shows that area is expanding from last three decades. There was dip in area during the period 2002–2009, which was seen as the decade of uprooting and extensive replanting in this district. But overall the area increased in the district and in many low altitude areas low chilling varieties are planted According to decade wise data, Fig. 4 during the first representative decade which was considered as baseline year (1984–1993) the area was 23797.3 ha, during the period 1994-2002the area was 32715.89 ha, which was 8918.59 ha more than the baseline period. During the period 2003–2011, the area was 30777.8 ha, which was 6.980.5 ha more than Baseline period similarly during the period 2012–2020 the area of the district under apple crop was 39170ha which was 15372.7 ha more than the baseline period. It can be observed that there was a considerable increase in the area under apple crop from23797.3ha during the first period to 39170ha during the last decade. The change in area over the years has been increased by 60.7%. [ 18 ]have also reported increase in area under apple in Shimla district in the last about thirty years. An increasing trend has been observed for the last four representative decades in apple production in Shimla district as shown in Fig. 5 . Shimla district is known for the origin of the apple or the Golden Belt of Himachal Pradesh crop where different varieties of apple are grown [ 19 ]. In 1984-85 the production of apple crop in the district was 129670 MT and in 2019-20 the production has increased by 437024 MT. The area has increased as well as introduction of high yielding varieties have contributed to the higher production (Economic survey Himachal Pradesh 2017-18.[ 20 ] . The decade wise data is presented in Fig. 6 and it showed that during the representative decade (1984–1993) the average production was 179945.89 MT, during 1994–2002 it was 160074 MT, during 2003–2011 it was 308472.8 MT and in the last representative decade 2012–2020 it was 326983 MT which was 147038 MT more than the baseline period. It was also observed that during the second decade (1994–2002), a sharp decline has been seen in between the decade during this particular 1999–2000 year because of severe weather conditions resulting in low fruit set. Such observations of spatial and temporal variability in apple production have also been observed by [ 21 ]. An increasing trend has been observed in the productivity of apple crop in Shimla District. Figure 7 illustrates the trends of area-wise apple productivity in Shimla region from 1984 to 2020. In 1984-85 the productivity of apple in Shimla district was 6.16 MT/ha and during 2019-20 the productivity was 10.46 MT/ha. According to Negi et al., [ 22 ] factors affecting the productivity of apple crop in Shimla district were Climate variation, application of farm yard manure and chemical fertilizers, human labour availability, variability in expenditure on fixed capital, management factor, literacy and capacity building of orchardists, and deviation of the orchardists from the prescribed spray schedule and density of plantation. According to decade wise data, it has been observed that there has been an increase in productivity in two representative decades (1st & 3rd ) and decrease in other two representative (2nd & 4th ) decades as shown in Fig. 8 . The average productivity in the baseline period / first decade (1984-93) is 7.52 MT/ha, during 1995-02 it was 4.9 MT/ha, during 2003-11 it was 9.96 MT /ha and during 2012-20 it was 8.34 MT/ha. As compared to the baseline there was increase in productivity by 0.82 MT/ha in 2019–2020. According to [ 23 ]Apple output has gradually increased, but productivity has decreased, with climate variability, soil and crop improvement, and other factors being blamed. Climate change is also said to be one of the most difficult things to control when it comes to diminishing productivity[ 24 ]. The average maximum temperature for last thirty-six years of Shimla district is presented in Fig. 9 , and an increasing trend has been observed in Shimla district the average maximum temperature (20.9℃) was recorded for the period 2015–2020 and it was 2.14℃ more than the period 1985–1994(18.76℃). The average minimum temperature for last thirty-six years Shimla was plotted graphically and an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed in Shimla district (Fig. 10 ). the average minimum temperature (11.07 ℃) was recorded for the period 2015–2020 and it was 1.1 ℃ more than (9.97℃) for the period 1985–1994. In Shimla district the mean decadal rainfall was 1395.48 mm during the baseline Period 1985–1994, 1569. 61 mm in 1995–2004, 1444. 26mm in 2005–2014 and 1409.5 mm in 2015–2020 (Fig. 11 ) and while comparing it to the baseline period the mean annual rainfall increased in all the three decades by 174.13mm, 48.78 mm and 14.02 mm during the period 1995–2004,2005–2014 and 2015–2020 respectively. Important information regarding the correlations can be found in the correlation matrix as shown in Table 2 . It is evident from the statistical analysis that the maximum temperature and agricultural productivity have a positive correlation (r = 0.268), meaning that greater temperatures are linked to higher productivity. This is expected as improved crop growth and development are frequently facilitated by warmer temperatures. Table 2 Correlation Matrix between Average Maximum Temperature, Average Minimum Temperature, Average Rainfall and Average Productivity Average Max Temp Average Min Temp Average Rainfall Average Productivity Max Temp 0.267876071 0.021213863 -0.877648541 1 Min Temp -0.201555743 0.272746732 1 Avg Rainfall -0.714480859 1 Avg Productivity 1 On the other hand, there is a relatively strong negative association (r = -0.202) between agricultural productivity and minimum temperature. This implies that productivity tends to decline slightly when minimum temperatures rise. This finding may suggest that apple growth may be negatively impacted by overly high minimum temperatures, or that they may obstruct the ideal growing conditions. Notable relationships exist between average rainfall and agricultural productivity. Average rainfall has a greater connection with productivity than with minimum temperature (r = 0.021), with the former showing only a weak positive correlation that suggests a slight likelihood for heavier rainfall when minimum temperature is higher. The productivity and average rainfall show a relatively strong negative association (r = -0.714), suggesting that higher rainfall levels are linked to poorer productivity. This implies that too much rain could cause waterlogging, nutrient leaching, or an increase in disease susceptibility, all of which could reduce crop production. The overall correlation matrix has been illustrated in Fig. 12 . Several conclusions about the correlations between meteorological factors and agricultural productivity, as seen in Fig. 12 , can be made based on the analysis and the correlation matrix that have been provided. The maximum temperature and agricultural productivity have a positive correlation, meaning that better productivity levels are typically associated with warmer temperatures. This implies that warmer temperatures may be advantageous for crops, possibly resulting in higher yields in such circumstances. Abnormally high minimum temperatures may have a negative impact on agricultural productivity, as indicated by the negative association observed between minimum temperature and productivity. This suggests that crop yields may have a maximum threshold for minimum temperatures, above which they begin to decrease. The more important conclusion is the negative link between rainfall and agricultural productivity, even though there is a slight positive correlation between average rainfall and lowest temperature. This suggests that although increased precipitation may go hand in hand with greater minimum temperatures, it also frequently corresponds with decreased productivity levels. This implies that an excessive amount of rainfall may present problems for crop production, whether as a result of increased disease pressure or waterlogging. The correlations show how intricately meteorological factors and crop productivity correlate. Even though some weather conditions could boost output on their own, their combined effects can have complex implications. For example, while higher temperatures could usually be advantageous, heavy rains could counteract these advantages and reduce output. V. CONCLUSION The present investigation entitled Unveiling the link between changing weather patterns and apple output in Shimla in Himachal Pradesh was conducted at selected altitudinal gradient 2000–2500 m amsl (Shimla). The impact of climatic conditions on productivity has been attempted to be assessed. This study revealed a warming trend in the area. The average maximum temperature of Shimla (2.14℃) showed an increase in from last 36 years. The average minimum temperature of Shimla (1.1℃). The area under apple trees has risen by more than six fold the area under apple in 1984-85 was 47360 hectares while the area under apple in 2019–2020 is 114144 ha. In Shimla the area 15372 ha area has been increase from baseline period. The analysis of correlation between maximum temperature and agricultural productivity indicates that warmer temperatures may increase crop production. On the other hand, production is negatively correlated with exceptionally high minimum temperatures, indicating a threshold that may be exceeded before yields start to decrease. Average rainfall and lowest temperature have a minor positive association, while heavy precipitation is associated with lower output, highlighting the complex interactions between climatic conditions and agricultural outcomes. Declarations Data Availability The datasets that has been analyzed for the present study is available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Moreover, the same can also be gathered from regional research stations of different districts and institutions. The dataset that has been used includes historical records of apple crop area, production, and productivity in Shimla District of Himachal Pradesh over the past four decades, along with climatic data (average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, and average rainfall) which further has been used for correlation analysis. References A. Kar, B. K. Garg, M. P. Singh, and S. Kathju, “TRENDS IN ARID ZONE RESEARCH IN INDIA”. M. K. Verma, J. I. Mir, S. Lal, and T. Sahoo, “Recent Advances in Temperate Fruit Crop Improvement,” International Journal of Science, Technology & Society , vol. 4, no. 1–2, Dec. 2018, doi: 10.18091/IJSTS.4121. “(1) (PDF) Scope and Importance of horticulture Crops.” Accessed: Apr. 08, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/377572263_Scope_and_Importance_of_horticulture_Crops H. P. Singh and S. K. Malhotra, “Horticulture for Food , Nutrition , Health Care and Livelihood Security,” no. August, pp. 1–20, 2011. “Apple production worldwide 2022 | Statista.” Accessed: Apr. 03, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/961248/production-of-apples-worldwide/ “United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears: World Markets and Trade”, Accessed: Apr. 03, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new “(1) (PDF) Status and position of apple crop in area, production and productivity in Himachal Pradesh.” Accessed: Apr. 08, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329122124_Status_and_position_of_apple_crop_in_area_production_and_productivity_in_Himachal_Pradesh A. Bhat, M. H. Wani, G. M. Bhat, A. Qadir, I. Qureshi, and S. A. Ganaie, “Health cost and economic loss due to excessive pesticide use in apple growing region of Jammu and Kashmir,” Journal of Applied Horticulture , vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 220–225, 2020, doi: 10.37855/jah.2020.v22i03.39. I. Ahmad, “Trend Analysis of Area, production and productivity of Apple fruit in Jammu and Kashmir”. “(1) (PDF) Production and Marketing Efficiency of Apple Farming- A Study in Shimla and Kullu Districts of Himachal Pradesh.” Accessed: Apr. 08, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333482003_Production_and_Marketing_Efficiency_of_Apple_Farming-_A_Study_in_Shimla_and_Kullu_Districts_of_Himachal_Pradesh Samriti, R. Sharma, K. Dev, A. Pathania, and S. Sharma, “An Economic Analysis of Apple Cultivation in High Hills of Himachal Pradesh,” Economic Affairs (New Delhi) , vol. 66, no. 2, pp. 265–270, Jun. 2021, doi: 10.46852/0424-2513.2.2021.12. “(1) (PDF) Status and position of apple crop in area, production and productivity in Himachal Pradesh.” Accessed: Apr. 08, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329122124_Status_and_position_of_apple_crop_in_area_production_and_productivity_in_Himachal_Pradesh/figures?lo=1 I. Sharma and A. Guleria, “Economics of Marketing of Apple Crop and the Problems Faced by Growers in Himachal Pradesh,” Economic Affairs (New Delhi) , vol. 65, no. 2, pp. 285–293, Jun. 2020, doi: 10.46852/0424-2513.2.2020.22. Arundhati and R. M. Bhagat, “Climate trends of a typical apple growing mid- hill district of Himachal Pradesh.,” IOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci , vol. 1110, no. 1, 2023, doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/1110/1/012031. “The Preparatory Study on Himachal Pradesh Forest Ecosystems Management and Livelihoods Improvement Project in India Final Report (Advanced Version),” 2018. “History of Shimla Town | Shimla District, Government of Himachal Pradesh | India.” Accessed: Apr. 08, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://hpshimla.nic.in/history/ M. Kumar and V. Biswas, “Identification of Potential Sites for Urban Development Using GIS Based Multi Criteria Evaluation Technique . A Case Study of Shimla Municipal Area , Shimla District ,Himachal Pradesh, India,” Journal of Settlements and Spatial Planning , vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 45–51, 2013. B. Bhattacharya, P. Gupta, and V. Sharma, “IMPACT OF VARYING CLIMATE CONDITIONS ON APPLE A CASE STUDY OF SHIMLA DISTRICT, HIMACHAL PRADESH,” Int J Appl Pure Sci Agric , vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 16–26, Mar. 2018, doi: 10.22623/IJAPSA.2018.4011.GP2PO. F. F. Ahmad Wani et al. , “Status and position of apple crop in area , production and productivity in Himachal Pradesh,” International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development , vol. 5, no. 11, pp. 106–111, 2018. “Eco-Survey-2017-18 - Economic & Statistics Department, HP, India.” Accessed: Apr. 03, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://himachalservices.nic.in/economics/en-IN/eco-survey-2017-18.html “(1) 4. Trends in Spatial Concentration, Production and Yield of Apple in Himachal: A Spatio-temporal Study | Request PDF.” Accessed: Apr. 03, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/256088097_4_Trends_in_Spatial_Concentration_Production_and_Yield_of_Apple_in_Himachal_A_Spatio-temporal_Study V. S. Negi, R. K. Maikhuri, D. Pharswan, S. Thakur, and P. P. Dhyani, “Climate change impact in the Western Himalaya: people’s perception and adaptive strategies,” J Mt Sci , vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 403–416, 2017, doi: 10.1007/s11629-015-3814-1. P. K. Aggarwal, R. P. Samui, and M. V Kamble, “ISPRS Archives XXXVIII-8/W3 Workshop Proceedings: Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture 399 IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR INDIAN AGRICULTURE”. K. Abbass, M. Z. Qasim, H. Song, M. Murshed, H. Mahmood, and I. Younis, “A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures,” Environmental Science and Pollution Research 2022 29:28 , vol. 29, no. 28, pp. 42539–42559, Apr. 2022, doi: 10.1007/S11356-022-19718-6. Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4481221","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":313322968,"identity":"fe47380e-8581-41b4-b1b3-0eb8c3a5c1ed","order_by":0,"name":"MANMEET KAUR","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chandigarh University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"MANMEET","middleName":"","lastName":"KAUR","suffix":""},{"id":313322969,"identity":"8ca22263-179c-4f20-905f-98fcabdbbaf2","order_by":1,"name":"Dr. Arundhati","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLAC3gYGBjb25oMPPlQAeczMDURpkWDjOZZsOOMMSAsjkVoYJHLMpHnbQFwCWvhnnzF78HaHXR0fzxkzCd55tdH87UAtPyq24dQicS7H3HDumWQJNva2YgvJbcdzZxxmbGDsOXMbtzVneEDuYQb65fDGG4bbjuU2ALUwM7bh1iIP0VIvwSaRYCCROOdY7nxCWgwgWg4DtaQYSRxsqMndQEiL4Rm2Msm5bccl20CB3HDsQO5GoJaD+Pwid4Z5m8Tbtmp++fbmg4//1NTlzjt/+OCDHxV4vI8GDoPJA0SrB4I6UhSPglEwCkbBCAEA/ehaJAyajX8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Chandigarh University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"Dr.","firstName":"","middleName":"","lastName":"Arundhati","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-05-26 19:39:19","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4481221/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4481221/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":58183716,"identity":"c5fd41ff-9a97-4f4c-bdfa-869705c2aa25","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-12 06:52:51","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":17468,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eState-Wise Percentage of Area, Production and Yield of Apple in India (2019-2020)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/b4f92ca0eb60b94cd74a6da9.png"},{"id":58186059,"identity":"83579def-7f0d-4c93-a0f6-ac29787601ec","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-12 07:16:51","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":228996,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eStudy Area Map\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/a7c864ea35fee9af2f67db6c.png"},{"id":58184352,"identity":"416afb03-484d-47e8-acd4-0168acfbca86","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-12 07:00:51","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":15590,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eChange in Area (1984-2020)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/7c91bbd1c2d5bc2994eddfb9.png"},{"id":58183719,"identity":"6f5a2b9a-78cf-4220-950c-7fb28e7008ac","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-12 06:52:51","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":12505,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eDecade wise trends of area under apple crop in Shimla region (1984-93, 1994-02, 2003-11, 2012-2020).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/ca3ed519a84e46b39ceb2baa.png"},{"id":58185331,"identity":"ebfcbf50-b04d-4495-b946-9314b3c01e94","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-12 07:08:51","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":23112,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTrends of Apple Production in Shimla District (1984-2020).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/345876a809a552ed5a09884f.png"},{"id":58184354,"identity":"fb5e4b25-2f8b-4a5c-98e9-7ed06a77efba","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-12 07:00:51","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":13702,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eDecade wise trends in Production of apple in Shimla region (1984-93, 1994-02, 2003-11, 2012-2020).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/63bd423b11ab9d6cd177d2bf.png"},{"id":58183722,"identity":"d20372fc-2a5c-4f63-b5a9-b49f3d003265","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-12 06:52:51","extension":"png","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":16965,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eTrends of Area-Wise Apple Productivity in Shimla Region (1984-2020)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/2c7ad7f9c6851b61ae84c978.png"},{"id":58183724,"identity":"368638a5-89d1-41d7-8100-c2ed5dc5ab6f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-12 06:52:51","extension":"png","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":13136,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eDecade wise trends in Productivity of apple in Shimla region (1984-93, 1994-02, 2003-11, 2012-2020)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/90fd892bd603a1fb3eaff5b6.png"},{"id":58183723,"identity":"b75e1615-ec2c-424a-ab21-78640ad80759","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-12 06:52:51","extension":"png","order_by":9,"title":"Figure 9","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":14779,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eDecadal trends in maximum temperature of Shimla districts of Himachal Pradesh.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"9.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/f508d4fafbb1a9e14cb59eaa.png"},{"id":58184356,"identity":"c2f18b76-8e6d-4682-8b88-2317af1023f1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-12 07:00:51","extension":"png","order_by":10,"title":"Figure 10","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":16334,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eDecadal trends in minimum temperature of Shimla district of Himachal Pradesh.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"10.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/ce659695d4e920aeb5645cf0.png"},{"id":58183726,"identity":"86da9bcb-8c4b-4ad9-bb8a-a7081a5f443d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-12 06:52:52","extension":"png","order_by":11,"title":"Figure 11","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":28372,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMonth-Wise Rainfall Pattern from 1985-2020\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"11.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/5f5e33559faebc8bd9481215.png"},{"id":58183727,"identity":"f045c34a-67b1-406e-906f-96d6544b73f0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-12 06:52:52","extension":"png","order_by":12,"title":"Figure 12","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":26104,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eGraphical representation of Correlation Matrix\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"12.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/06a32f3011a1eab8d7431329.png"},{"id":59991365,"identity":"4d5ec619-9967-45d6-b0b3-194f5d94d9a3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-07-10 08:34:16","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":731725,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4481221/v1/b09d7cc0-9199-4255-a40d-28f4f11f61ea.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Unveiling the link between changing weather patterns and apple output in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India","fulltext":[{"header":"I. INTRODUCTION","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe monsoonal climate of North India is typified by distinct summer and winter seasons. Due to varied climate, soil regimes and diverse agro-ecological ranges, North Indian landscapes have abundant opportunities to produce horticultural crops which strengthen the overall agricultural produce of the country [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e]. Temperate fruits originate from locations which vary in specific climatic conditions, mostly grown in places where winters are distinctly harsh. These contribute to horticulture industry and are essential in food and nutritional security of the country[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e] Horticulture largely comprises of fruits, vegetables, flowers and other ornamental species[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e]. Additionally, aromatic plants and medicinal plants, root and tuber crops and mushrooms have come up as a core and significant sector of agri-horticulture [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e].This entire sector of plantation crops not only contributes towards economy of the country, but also strengthens the nutritional security of the people.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn India and throughout the world, apples are a fruit of significant economic value. The total number of apples produced worldwide in 2022 was 95.84\u0026nbsp;million metric tons, up from roughly 83.1\u0026nbsp;million tons in 2017[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e]. China is the world's top apple-growing nation, with the US, India, and Turkey following closely behind. Even though India ranks third in the world for production, its exports still don't match its standing in the global economy. The production of classic types, the color and shelf life of the apples, the features of apple orchards, the overuse of pesticides, and the availability of infrastructure are just a few of the possible causes[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e]\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIndia is blessed with a diverse range of soil types and agro-climatic conditions, allowing it to cultivate a wide range of horticulture crops in particular, as well as other crops in general. The cultivation of apple is mainly done in northern Himalayan areas, while the apples are the monopoly of hilly regions of India like Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttrakhand and Arunachal Pradesh.[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e] About 89.16 percent of India's total area under apple trees and 96.57 percent of the country's total production are accounted for by the two significant states of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e]. As per the statistics Uttrakhand (2.70 tonnes/ha), Himachal Pradesh (4.45 tonnes/ha), and Jammu and Kashmir (12.25 tonnes/ha) have the highest apple productivity as shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe top two apple producing Indian states are Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. Apple is the principal crop grown in nine districts of Himachal Pradesh[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e]. In recent years apple has emerged as the leading cash crop amongst fruit crops in the country. It constitutes 96 percent of area and 97 percent of production in the top two Indian states and once known for its best quality of apples in the country[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e]. It constitutes the major part of economy of Himachal Pradesh [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e11\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAmong all the fruit crops grown in Himachal Pradesh, Apple dominates in the area as well as in production. Once Himachal Pradesh was known for the production of finest quality of apple in the country, but now apple has become nonviable, unproductive, uneconomical and less profitable in many parts of the state [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e]. Fruit growers in the state have observed variations in the climate over the years. The traditional Apple farming at present is under stress due to variation in the climatic conditions. Horticulture sector is the main constituent for the development in the state of Himachal Pradesh. Directly and indirectly this sector provides livelihoods for more than one lakh people of Himachal Pradesh [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e13\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe area under apple cultivation has increased substantially from a mere 400 hectares in 1950s to 11. 4 lakhs hectares in 2020s but fluctuation is observed in the productivity of the Shimla district. In the study period area under apple crop is 49840 ha in 1984 and 114144 in 2020 in Himachal Pradesh (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). Considering the vital role that apple has in the economy of Himachal Pradesh, there is a need to study the production and productivity of the apple crop and mitigation practices to cope up with the adverse effects of climate on Apple crop[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e14\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eArea under apple crop from 1984\u0026ndash;2020 in Himachal Pradesh\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"8\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c6\" colnum=\"6\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c7\" colnum=\"7\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c8\" colnum=\"8\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eArea (Hectares)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eArea (Hectares)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eArea (Hectares)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eYear\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eArea (Hectares)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1984-85\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e21066\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1993-94\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e29123\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2002-03\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e27678\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2011-12\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e35778\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1985-86\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e21611\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1994-95\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e30114\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2003-04\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e28247\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2012-13\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e37249\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1986-87\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e21939\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1995-96\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e31213\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2004-05\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e29029\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2013-14\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e37542\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1887-88\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e22453\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1996-97\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e31956\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2005-06\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e29671\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2014-15\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e38781\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1988-89\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e23266\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1997-98\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e32908\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2006-07\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e30666\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2015-16\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e39728\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1989-90\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e23980\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1998-99\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e33707\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2007-08\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e31323\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2016-17\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e40160\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1990-91\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e25191\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1999\u0026ndash;2000\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e34465\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2008-09\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e32195\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2017-18\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e40566\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1991-92\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e26754\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2000\u0026ndash;2001\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e35052\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2009-10\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e33579\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2018-19\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e40961\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1992-93\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e27916\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2001-02\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e35905\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2010-11\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c6\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e34612\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\"\u0026minus;\" colname=\"c7\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e2019-20\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c8\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e41765\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe climate in Shimla district, which is located in Himachal Pradesh's high hill wet temperate agro-climate zone, is primarily chilly in the winter and moderately warm in the summer. Throughout the year, temperatures normally range from 4.0\u0026deg;C to 31.0\u0026deg;C[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR15\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e15\u003c/span\u003e]. Summer temperatures range between 19.00C and 28.0\u0026deg;C, while winter temperatures range between l.00C and 10.0\u0026deg;C. The average monthly rainfall ranges from 15.0 millimetres in November to 434.0 mm in August. During the winter and spring, it averages roughly 45.0 mm every month, with 175.0 mm in June. The average total precipitation is 1575.0 mm which is less than other hill stations. Snowfall in this region occurs in the months of December to February.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"II. STUDY AREA","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe study area (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e), viz. the Shimla Municipal Corporation, is one of the oldest municipalities of India which extends between 31\u0026deg;04'01\" N to 31\u0026deg;08' 19\" N latitude and 77\u0026deg;06' 56\" E to 77\u0026deg;13' 50\" E longitude, encompasses an area of 27.58 km\u0026sup2;[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e16\u003c/span\u003e]. Its average altitudinal height is 2012.30 meters above mean sea level (amsl). Shimla lies in the north-western ranges of the Himalayas [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e17\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"III. MATERIALS AND METHODS","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe current study was conducted in the Shimla district of Himachal Pradesh (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e), India, which represent the region's mid-hill sub-humid agro-climatic zone (1985\u0026ndash;2020). The secondary meteorological information for the climate variables (temperature and precipitation) was gathered from the records of the regional research stations of different districts and institutions (Agriculture University, Palampur, and Himachal Pradesh). After carefully reviewing and confirming the data in the research region, the database was constructed. Data on apple production and area for the corresponding time period was gathered from Shimla's Department of Horticulture. The maximum temperature, minimum temperature, rainfall, and apple productivity were used to calculate the statistical trends (xls. software). Various meteorological parameters were analyzed, correlated, and checked for any exceptions using historical measurements. Statistical tool built within the xls application was employed for the analysis.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION","content":"\u003cp\u003eIn Shimla district an increasing trend has been observed in the area from last thirty six years. Change in area of apple crop in Shimla district has been shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e which shows that area is expanding from last three decades. There was dip in area during the period 2002\u0026ndash;2009, which was seen as the decade of uprooting and extensive replanting in this district. But overall the area increased in the district and in many low altitude areas low chilling varieties are planted\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to decade wise data, Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e during the first representative decade which was considered as baseline year (1984\u0026ndash;1993) the area was 23797.3 ha, during the period 1994-2002the area was 32715.89 ha, which was 8918.59 ha more than the baseline period. During the period 2003\u0026ndash;2011, the area was 30777.8 ha, which was 6.980.5 ha more than Baseline period similarly during the period 2012\u0026ndash;2020 the area of the district under apple crop was 39170ha which was 15372.7 ha more than the baseline period.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIt can be observed that there was a considerable increase in the area under apple crop from23797.3ha during the first period to 39170ha during the last decade. The change in area over the years has been increased by 60.7%. [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e18\u003c/span\u003e]have also reported increase in area under apple in Shimla district in the last about thirty years.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn increasing trend has been observed for the last four representative decades in apple production in Shimla district as shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e. Shimla district is known for the origin of the apple or the Golden Belt of Himachal Pradesh crop where different varieties of apple are grown [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e19\u003c/span\u003e]. In 1984-85 the production of apple crop in the district was 129670 MT and in 2019-20 the production has increased by 437024 MT. The area has increased as well as introduction of high yielding varieties have contributed to the higher production (Economic survey Himachal Pradesh 2017-18.[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e20\u003c/span\u003e] .\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe decade wise data is presented in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig6\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e and it showed that during the representative decade (1984\u0026ndash;1993) the average production was 179945.89 MT, during 1994\u0026ndash;2002 it was 160074 MT, during 2003\u0026ndash;2011 it was 308472.8 MT and in the last representative decade 2012\u0026ndash;2020 it was 326983 MT which was 147038 MT more than the baseline period. It was also observed that during the second decade (1994\u0026ndash;2002), a sharp decline has been seen in between the decade during this particular 1999\u0026ndash;2000 year because of severe weather conditions resulting in low fruit set. Such observations of spatial and temporal variability in apple production have also been observed by [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e21\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAn increasing trend has been observed in the productivity of apple crop in Shimla District. Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e illustrates the trends of area-wise apple productivity in Shimla region from 1984 to 2020. In 1984-85 the productivity of apple in Shimla district was 6.16 MT/ha and during 2019-20 the productivity was 10.46 MT/ha. According to Negi et al., [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e22\u003c/span\u003e] factors affecting the productivity of apple crop in Shimla district were Climate variation, application of farm yard manure and chemical fertilizers, human labour availability, variability in expenditure on fixed capital, management factor, literacy and capacity building of orchardists, and deviation of the orchardists from the prescribed spray schedule and density of plantation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAccording to decade wise data, it has been observed that there has been an increase in productivity in two representative decades (1st \u0026amp; 3rd ) and decrease in other two representative (2nd \u0026amp; 4th ) decades as shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e. The average productivity in the baseline period / first decade (1984-93) is 7.52 MT/ha, during 1995-02 it was 4.9 MT/ha, during 2003-11 it was 9.96 MT /ha and during 2012-20 it was 8.34 MT/ha. As compared to the baseline there was increase in productivity by 0.82 MT/ha in 2019\u0026ndash;2020. According to [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e23\u003c/span\u003e]Apple output has gradually increased, but productivity has decreased, with climate variability, soil and crop improvement, and other factors being blamed. Climate change is also said to be one of the most difficult things to control when it comes to diminishing productivity[\u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e24\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe average maximum temperature for last thirty-six years of Shimla district is presented in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig9\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e, and an increasing trend has been observed in Shimla district the average maximum temperature (20.9℃) was recorded for the period 2015\u0026ndash;2020 and it was 2.14℃ more than the period 1985\u0026ndash;1994(18.76℃).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe average minimum temperature for last thirty-six years Shimla was plotted graphically and an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed in Shimla district (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e). the average minimum temperature (11.07 ℃) was recorded for the period 2015\u0026ndash;2020 and it was 1.1 ℃ more than (9.97℃) for the period 1985\u0026ndash;1994.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Shimla district the mean decadal rainfall was 1395.48 mm during the baseline Period 1985\u0026ndash;1994, 1569. 61 mm in 1995\u0026ndash;2004, 1444. 26mm in 2005\u0026ndash;2014 and 1409.5 mm in 2015\u0026ndash;2020 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig11\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e11\u003c/span\u003e) and while comparing it to the baseline period the mean annual rainfall increased in all the three decades by 174.13mm, 48.78 mm and 14.02 mm during the period 1995\u0026ndash;2004,2005\u0026ndash;2014 and 2015\u0026ndash;2020 respectively.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eImportant information regarding the correlations can be found in the correlation matrix as shown in Table \u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e. It is evident from the statistical analysis that the maximum temperature and agricultural productivity have a positive correlation (r\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.268), meaning that greater temperatures are linked to higher productivity. This is expected as improved crop growth and development are frequently facilitated by warmer temperatures.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab2\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 2\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eCorrelation Matrix between Average Maximum Temperature, Average Minimum Temperature, Average Rainfall and Average Productivity\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"5\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"char\" char=\".\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAverage Max Temp\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAverage Min Temp\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAverage Rainfall\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAverage Productivity\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMax Temp\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.267876071\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.021213863\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e-0.877648541\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"char\" char=\".\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eMin Temp\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e-0.201555743\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.272746732\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAvg Rainfall\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e-0.714480859\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAvg Productivity\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOn the other hand, there is a relatively strong negative association (r = -0.202) between agricultural productivity and minimum temperature. This implies that productivity tends to decline slightly when minimum temperatures rise. This finding may suggest that apple growth may be negatively impacted by overly high minimum temperatures, or that they may obstruct the ideal growing conditions. Notable relationships exist between average rainfall and agricultural productivity. Average rainfall has a greater connection with productivity than with minimum temperature (r\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.021), with the former showing only a weak positive correlation that suggests a slight likelihood for heavier rainfall when minimum temperature is higher. The productivity and average rainfall show a relatively strong negative association (r = -0.714), suggesting that higher rainfall levels are linked to poorer productivity. This implies that too much rain could cause waterlogging, nutrient leaching, or an increase in disease susceptibility, all of which could reduce crop production. The overall correlation matrix has been illustrated in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig12\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eSeveral conclusions about the correlations between meteorological factors and agricultural productivity, as seen in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig12\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e, can be made based on the analysis and the correlation matrix that have been provided. The maximum temperature and agricultural productivity have a positive correlation, meaning that better productivity levels are typically associated with warmer temperatures. This implies that warmer temperatures may be advantageous for crops, possibly resulting in higher yields in such circumstances.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eAbnormally high minimum temperatures may have a negative impact on agricultural productivity, as indicated by the negative association observed between minimum temperature and productivity. This suggests that crop yields may have a maximum threshold for minimum temperatures, above which they begin to decrease. The more important conclusion is the negative link between rainfall and agricultural productivity, even though there is a slight positive correlation between average rainfall and lowest temperature. This suggests that although increased precipitation may go hand in hand with greater minimum temperatures, it also frequently corresponds with decreased productivity levels. This implies that an excessive amount of rainfall may present problems for crop production, whether as a result of increased disease pressure or waterlogging. The correlations show how intricately meteorological factors and crop productivity correlate. Even though some weather conditions could boost output on their own, their combined effects can have complex implications. For example, while higher temperatures could usually be advantageous, heavy rains could counteract these advantages and reduce output.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"V. CONCLUSION","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe present investigation entitled Unveiling the link between changing weather patterns and apple output in Shimla in Himachal Pradesh was conducted at selected altitudinal gradient 2000\u0026ndash;2500 m amsl (Shimla). The impact of climatic conditions on productivity has been attempted to be assessed. This study revealed a warming trend in the area. The average maximum temperature of Shimla (2.14℃) showed an increase in from last 36 years. The average minimum temperature of Shimla (1.1℃). The area under apple trees has risen by more than six fold the area under apple in 1984-85 was 47360 hectares while the area under apple in 2019\u0026ndash;2020 is 114144 ha. In Shimla the area 15372 ha area has been increase from baseline period. The analysis of correlation between maximum temperature and agricultural productivity indicates that warmer temperatures may increase crop production. On the other hand, production is negatively correlated with exceptionally high minimum temperatures, indicating a threshold that may be exceeded before yields start to decrease. Average rainfall and lowest temperature have a minor positive association, while heavy precipitation is associated with lower output, highlighting the complex interactions between climatic conditions and agricultural outcomes.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eData Availability\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe datasets that has been analyzed for the present study is available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Moreover, the same can also be gathered from regional research stations of different districts and institutions. The dataset that has been used includes historical records of apple crop area, production, and productivity in Shimla District of Himachal Pradesh over the past four decades, along with climatic data (average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, and average rainfall) which further has been used for correlation analysis.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eA. Kar, B. K. Garg, M. P. Singh, and S. Kathju, \u0026ldquo;TRENDS IN ARID ZONE RESEARCH IN INDIA\u0026rdquo;.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eM. K. Verma, J. I. Mir, S. Lal, and T. Sahoo, \u0026ldquo;Recent Advances in Temperate Fruit Crop Improvement,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eInternational Journal of Science, Technology \u0026amp; Society\u003c/em\u003e, vol. 4, no. 1\u0026ndash;2, Dec. 2018, doi: 10.18091/IJSTS.4121.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;(1) (PDF) Scope and Importance of horticulture Crops.\u0026rdquo; Accessed: Apr. 08, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/377572263_Scope_and_Importance_of_horticulture_Crops\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eH. P. Singh and S. K. Malhotra, \u0026ldquo;Horticulture for Food , Nutrition , Health Care and Livelihood Security,\u0026rdquo; no. August, pp. 1\u0026ndash;20, 2011.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Apple production worldwide 2022 | Statista.\u0026rdquo; Accessed: Apr. 03, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.statista.com/statistics/961248/production-of-apples-worldwide/\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears: World Markets and Trade\u0026rdquo;, Accessed: Apr. 03, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;(1) (PDF) Status and position of apple crop in area, production and productivity in Himachal Pradesh.\u0026rdquo; Accessed: Apr. 08, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329122124_Status_and_position_of_apple_crop_in_area_production_and_productivity_in_Himachal_Pradesh\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eA. Bhat, M. H. Wani, G. M. Bhat, A. Qadir, I. Qureshi, and S. A. Ganaie, \u0026ldquo;Health cost and economic loss due to excessive pesticide use in apple growing region of Jammu and Kashmir,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eJournal of Applied Horticulture\u003c/em\u003e, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 220\u0026ndash;225, 2020, doi: 10.37855/jah.2020.v22i03.39.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eI. Ahmad, \u0026ldquo;Trend Analysis of Area, production and productivity of Apple fruit in Jammu and Kashmir\u0026rdquo;.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;(1) (PDF) Production and Marketing Efficiency of Apple Farming- A Study in Shimla and Kullu Districts of Himachal Pradesh.\u0026rdquo; Accessed: Apr. 08, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333482003_Production_and_Marketing_Efficiency_of_Apple_Farming-_A_Study_in_Shimla_and_Kullu_Districts_of_Himachal_Pradesh\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eSamriti, R. Sharma, K. Dev, A. Pathania, and S. Sharma, \u0026ldquo;An Economic Analysis of Apple Cultivation in High Hills of Himachal Pradesh,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eEconomic Affairs (New Delhi)\u003c/em\u003e, vol. 66, no. 2, pp. 265\u0026ndash;270, Jun. 2021, doi: 10.46852/0424-2513.2.2021.12.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;(1) (PDF) Status and position of apple crop in area, production and productivity in Himachal Pradesh.\u0026rdquo; Accessed: Apr. 08, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329122124_Status_and_position_of_apple_crop_in_area_production_and_productivity_in_Himachal_Pradesh/figures?lo=1\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eI. Sharma and A. Guleria, \u0026ldquo;Economics of Marketing of Apple Crop and the Problems Faced by Growers in Himachal Pradesh,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eEconomic Affairs (New Delhi)\u003c/em\u003e, vol. 65, no. 2, pp. 285\u0026ndash;293, Jun. 2020, doi: 10.46852/0424-2513.2.2020.22.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eArundhati and R. M. Bhagat, \u0026ldquo;Climate trends of a typical apple growing mid- hill district of Himachal Pradesh.,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eIOP Conf Ser Earth Environ Sci\u003c/em\u003e, vol. 1110, no. 1, 2023, doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/1110/1/012031.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;The Preparatory Study on Himachal Pradesh Forest Ecosystems Management and Livelihoods Improvement Project in India Final Report (Advanced Version),\u0026rdquo; 2018.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;History of Shimla Town | Shimla District, Government of Himachal Pradesh | India.\u0026rdquo; Accessed: Apr. 08, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://hpshimla.nic.in/history/\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eM. Kumar and V. Biswas, \u0026ldquo;Identification of Potential Sites for Urban Development Using GIS Based Multi Criteria Evaluation Technique . A Case Study of Shimla Municipal Area , Shimla District ,Himachal Pradesh, India,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eJournal of Settlements and Spatial Planning\u003c/em\u003e, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 45\u0026ndash;51, 2013.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eB. Bhattacharya, P. Gupta, and V. Sharma, \u0026ldquo;IMPACT OF VARYING CLIMATE CONDITIONS ON APPLE A CASE STUDY OF SHIMLA DISTRICT, HIMACHAL PRADESH,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eInt J Appl Pure Sci Agric\u003c/em\u003e, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 16\u0026ndash;26, Mar. 2018, doi: 10.22623/IJAPSA.2018.4011.GP2PO.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eF. F. Ahmad Wani \u003cem\u003eet al.\u003c/em\u003e, \u0026ldquo;Status and position of apple crop in area , production and productivity in Himachal Pradesh,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eInternational Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development\u003c/em\u003e, vol. 5, no. 11, pp. 106\u0026ndash;111, 2018.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;Eco-Survey-2017-18 - Economic \u0026amp; Statistics Department, HP, India.\u0026rdquo; Accessed: Apr. 03, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://himachalservices.nic.in/economics/en-IN/eco-survey-2017-18.html\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003e\u0026ldquo;(1) 4. Trends in Spatial Concentration, Production and Yield of Apple in Himachal: A Spatio-temporal Study | Request PDF.\u0026rdquo; Accessed: Apr. 03, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/256088097_4_Trends_in_Spatial_Concentration_Production_and_Yield_of_Apple_in_Himachal_A_Spatio-temporal_Study\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eV. S. Negi, R. K. Maikhuri, D. Pharswan, S. Thakur, and P. P. Dhyani, \u0026ldquo;Climate change impact in the Western Himalaya: people\u0026rsquo;s perception and adaptive strategies,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eJ Mt Sci\u003c/em\u003e, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 403\u0026ndash;416, 2017, doi: 10.1007/s11629-015-3814-1.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eP. K. Aggarwal, R. P. Samui, and M. V Kamble, \u0026ldquo;ISPRS Archives XXXVIII-8/W3 Workshop Proceedings: Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture 399 IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR INDIAN AGRICULTURE\u0026rdquo;.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eK. Abbass, M. Z. Qasim, H. Song, M. Murshed, H. Mahmood, and I. Younis, \u0026ldquo;A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures,\u0026rdquo; \u003cem\u003eEnvironmental Science and Pollution Research 2022 29:28\u003c/em\u003e, vol. 29, no. 28, pp. 42539\u0026ndash;42559, Apr. 2022, doi: 10.1007/S11356-022-19718-6. \u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Apple, Apple Productivity, Climate Change, Temperature, Rainfall","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4481221/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4481221/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis paper includes the change in area, production and productivity of Apple crop in Shimla District of Himachal Pradesh. The goal of this paper was to look at the performance of apple crop in the study area over the last four decades to see if there had been any apparent change. There was a considerable increase in the area under apple crop from 13558.67 ha during the first period to 26114.4 ha during the last decade. The change in area over the years has been increased by 51.9%. There has been an increasing trend in the area from last thirty six years. This paper would aid in identifying the fundamental causes of such performance, allowing a broad assessment of future output potential. Further, it develops a correlation matrix between average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, average rainfall and average productivity of apple within the chosen time period. Based on the correlation it can be concluded that warmer temperatures may increase crop production. But, unusually high lowest temperatures may exceed a threshold. The relationship between climatic conditions and productivity has been highlighted by the fact that heavy precipitation corresponds with decreased yield, whereas average rainfall and lowest temperatures show very weak positive relationships.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Unveiling the link between changing weather patterns and apple output in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-06-12 06:52:46","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4481221/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"4a1dc579-2835-45fb-8509-c7eaf0af9737","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 12th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-07-10T08:26:09+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-06-12 06:52:46","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4481221","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4481221","identity":"rs-4481221","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}