Delusions Emerge from Generative Model Reorganisation rather than Faulty Inference: Insights from Hybrid Predictive Coding

Abstract Predictive coding has influenced many conceptual accounts of delusions, the bizarre and distressing beliefs that accompany a range of neuropsychiatric conditions. However, these explanations remain incomplete and have rarely been tested directly using formal modelling. Here, we present a formal account of delusional beliefs based on hybrid predictive coding, which sheds light on the computational mechanisms underpinning the core features of delusions: thematic recurrence and imperviousness to contradictory evidence. In simulation experiments, we demonstrate that a combination of contextually inadequate initialisation of beliefs and excessive certainty (a hallmark of psychosis), triggers a reorganisation of the generative model relating observed events to hidden causes. This reorganisation enables the maintenance of delusional beliefs that are thematically stable, internally consistent with external inputs, and impervious to contradictory evidence, all without an increase in prediction error. Overall, our results suggest that delusions may arise not from ‘faulty’ inference, as previously argued, but as an adaptive consequence of generative models learned under atypical conditions. These findings provide mechanistic insights into the computations underpinning delusions and have important implications for a novel therapeutic strategy in terms of re-training generative models. Competing Interest Statement PCF has received consulting fees from Ninja Theory and Hooke London. All other authors declare no competing interests.