Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Products Import Trade on Agricultural Carbon Productivity: Empirical Evidence from China

Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Products Import Trade on Agricultural Carbon Productivity: Empirical Evidence from China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Products Import Trade on Agricultural Carbon Productivity: Empirical Evidence from China Wang Xinyao, Li Yan, Dan Li This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4345875/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract To realize the goal of “dual carbon”, China urgently needs to seek the path of low-carbon agricultural development. The existing agricultural trade deficit in China has become an established reality. As China progressively increases its agricultural openness to the global market and advances the low-carbon agricultural development, it holds both academic significance and practical relevance to analyze the impact of agricultural products import trade on China’s agricultural carbon productivity. This paper focuses on the period from 2000 to 2020 and takes 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) of China as the research object. It empirically examines the impact and mechanism of agricultural products import trade on agricultural carbon productivity by constructing a dynamic panel model, a dynamic panel threshold model, a dynamic panel quartile model, and a multiple intermediary effect model. This paper yields the following conclusions: Firstly, agricultural products import trade positively impacts agricultural carbon productivity. Secondly, there is a single threshold effect based on economic development level, that is, real per capita income of 8872.19 yuan, and after reaching the threshold, the promotion effect of agricultural products import trade on agricultural carbon productivity will decrease. Thirdly, agricultural products import trade increases agricultural carbon productivity by reducing agricultural factor inputs and upgrading agricultural production technology level, and agricultural products import trade decreases agricultural carbon productivity by adjusting agricultural industrial structure; Agricultural products import trade reduces agricultural carbon productivity by adjusting agricultural industrial structure. Therefore, this paper proposes to increase agricultural products imports moderately based on guaranteeing food security, optimize structure of agricultural production and agricultural products import trade, and leverage the technological spillover effects of agricultural products import trade and encourage agricultural scientific and technological innovation. These suggestions aim to elevate China’s agricultural carbon productivity and facilitate the green and low-carbon agricultural transformation. Agricultural products import trade Agricultural carbon emissions Agricultural carbon productivity Economic development level Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4345875","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":297758223,"identity":"fb27e16b-cbc2-45f0-b535-337f1e67164b","order_by":0,"name":"Wang Xinyao","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAx0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACfmbGhgMfKmx45NkbiNQi2c588OCMM2lyhj0HiNRicJ4t+TBv22FjhhsJxNrSzGNwmIeNObFx5uONNxhqbKIJauFn5jE4OIeHLbFdOq3YguFYWm4DMbYceCPBk9g4O8dMgrHhMGEtQFcZHOAxkEhsuHmGaC1sCQd5EgyA3uchUotkM/OBgzMOJAADGeiXBGL8ws9/sPnDx3//gVF5eOONDzU2hLWgOFIigRTlEC2k6hgFo2AUjIKRAQAmtkLYEU4qiQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Heilongjiang University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wang","middleName":"","lastName":"Xinyao","suffix":""},{"id":297758225,"identity":"64e08676-f450-4b57-bac5-77d131671eeb","order_by":1,"name":"Li Yan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"North University of China","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Li","middleName":"","lastName":"Yan","suffix":""},{"id":297758226,"identity":"d41646cf-b446-4b7e-a06a-1ea246c2d62d","order_by":2,"name":"Dan Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Northeast Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dan","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-04-30 03:08:59","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4345875/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4345875/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":56525449,"identity":"49ac2778-ab89-4817-a958-27ae198cb6b3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-15 10:00:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":362570,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4345875/v1_covered_6342e440-89d2-4f9f-a1e7-d33e1ec69eb4.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Analysis of the Impact of Agricultural Products Import Trade on Agricultural Carbon Productivity: Empirical Evidence from China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Agricultural products import trade, Agricultural carbon emissions, Agricultural carbon productivity, Economic development level","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4345875/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4345875/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eTo realize the goal of “dual carbon”, China urgently needs to seek the path of low-carbon agricultural development. 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Therefore, this paper proposes to increase agricultural products imports moderately based on guaranteeing food security, optimize structure of agricultural production and agricultural products import trade, and leverage the technological spillover effects of agricultural products import trade and encourage agricultural scientific and technological innovation. 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