Shoreline Dynamics of Reserved Region of Meghna Estuary and It Impacts on Lulc and Socio-Economic: A Case Study on Nijhum Dwip

The southern side of Bangladesh is more unstable due to carrying massive discharge and transportation of heavy sediment through Meghna estuary. Shoreline representation is extremely important to regulate the dynamic nature of coastal areas. This paper focused on measuring the change of shoreline, evaluating the LULC (land use & land cover) due to the shoreline dynamics by using a multi-date (1978-2018) satellite image and changes of the social-economic condition due to the shoreline dynamics by a direct interview-based questionnaire survey of Nijhum Dwip, Hatiya, Noakhali, Bangladesh. Shoreline changes have been estimated as net shoreline movement (NSM), endpoint rate (EPR), and prediction based on the EPR rate. A total of 104% were increased with the rate of -17 m to 86 m per year shoreline change. Most of the accretion occurred in the Northern and Western sides; erosion only occurred on the Southern side. It can be estimated that the shoreline will increase by 2.2 km, with an area of 644.32 hectares in 2028. LULC mainly changed due to accretion activities in the study area. Barren land, mudflats, homestead vegetation, grassland were increased by 0.63%, 0.65%, 14%, 6% drastically of its total area, respectively. Cropland, green vegetation, and mangrove vegetation were decreased by 12%, 9%, and 0.11%, respectively, drastically of its total area. It can be appraised that the vegetated area will increase 5103.39 hectares in 2028. Thus it was also determined that shoreline change has a positive impact on migration, economic activities, and tourism. As newly accreted land which was cheap or could stay through " Bndobostho " and people were joining various working fields which had been created in new accreted land and farmer were increased. This paper intends to contribute several suggestions to the socio-economic development of native people and future strategic management of the reserved coastal area.