Beyond the Aging Burden: A Stage-based Analysis of Population Aging and Health Expenditures in OECD Countries

Beyond the Aging Burden: A Stage-based Analysis of Population Aging and Health Expenditures in OECD Countries | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Beyond the Aging Burden: A Stage-based Analysis of Population Aging and Health Expenditures in OECD Countries Mehmet ERCORUMLU, ERDEM BAGCI, Bülent Arpat This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8894913/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background Population aging is often seen as a key driver of rising health spending. However, most studies treat older individuals as a homogeneous group, overlooking the differences in aging stages within populations. To create sustainable health financing policies, it’s essential to analyze how aging impacts health expenditure at different stages. This study examines the influence of the population aged 65–79 and those 80 and over on health expenditure as a percentage of GDP in OECD countries. Methods This research uses an unbalanced panel dataset of 38 OECD nations from 2000 to 2024. A multivariate random-effects panel regression assesses the relationship between aging indices and health expenditures, controlling for health system capacity, disease burden, and economic factors. Stationarity tests and data transformations enhance the robustness of the findings. Results The findings reveal that the relationship between aging and health expenditure varies across different stages. Increases in the 65–79 age group correlate with a significant decrease in health expenditure shares, while the 80 + group shows no independent effect. Economic factors, especially GDP per capita, physician density, and medical technology availability, are crucial determinants, whereas disease burden indicators provide limited explanatory power. Notably, comparisons among countries highlight significant heterogeneity. Conclusion These results challenge the notion that population aging automatically leads to increased health expenditures. Instead, spending patterns are primarily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, health system capacity, and technological advancements, indicating the need for tailored policies that address specific societal contexts. JEL codes I10, I18, J11, C23 Population aging Health expenditures OECD countries Panel data analyses Health system capacity Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Reviewers invited by journal 16 Mar, 2026 Editor invited by journal 25 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 25 Feb, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 25 Feb, 2026 First submitted to journal 16 Feb, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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However, most studies treat older individuals as a homogeneous group, overlooking the differences in aging stages within populations. To create sustainable health financing policies, it’s essential to analyze how aging impacts health expenditure at different stages. This study examines the influence of the population aged 65–79 and those 80 and over on health expenditure as a percentage of GDP in OECD countries.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis research uses an unbalanced panel dataset of 38 OECD nations from 2000 to 2024. A multivariate random-effects panel regression assesses the relationship between aging indices and health expenditures, controlling for health system capacity, disease burden, and economic factors. 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