The full climate costs of agriculture including foregone land carbon storage

The full climate costs of agriculture including foregone land carbon storage | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Biological Sciences - Article The full climate costs of agriculture including foregone land carbon storage Stefan Wirsenius, Oliver James, Tim Beringer, Timothy Searchinger This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6678069/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Estimates of the climate costs of agriculture typically do not count lost carbon storage from native vegetation on existing agricultural land. By assigning no climate cost or benefit to activities that increase or decrease demand for agricultural land, these estimates effectively treat such land as “free” from a climate perspective. Here, we produce comprehensive estimates of the full climate costs of agricultural products, including foregone carbon storage, for 270 products in 14 world regions or major agricultural countries. We also incorporate production emissions estimates that are physically consistent with each other and with national agricultural statistics, differing substantially from prior estimates in methods, comprehensiveness and results. When including the cost of foregone carbon storage, the global annualized climate cost of agriculture of ~34 Gt CO₂ eq/year matches energy emissions and is 3.5x typical estimates. Only ¼ of this cost occurs to produce crops consumed directly as food, and ~57% is for ruminant products. Differing regional costs reveal potential adverse effects of outsourcing production, but using regional versus global carbon costs would not typically change the directional outcomes of potential food policies. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files WirseniusSupplementaryInformation.pdf Supplementary Information to the article The full climate costs of agriculture including foregone land carbon storage WirseniusDataS1.xlsx Data S1 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6678069","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Biological Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":466351477,"identity":"77f2fe52-5196-4781-ba2b-912891fd9de8","order_by":0,"name":"Stefan Wirsenius","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7632-6977","institution":"Chalmers University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stefan","middleName":"","lastName":"Wirsenius","suffix":""},{"id":466351478,"identity":"649cfc82-6217-4eef-b8da-713e9ea426cd","order_by":1,"name":"Oliver James","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"World Resources Institute","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Oliver","middleName":"","lastName":"James","suffix":""},{"id":466351479,"identity":"d574fcb2-758c-4a3a-964e-66ebfe5ee8d4","order_by":2,"name":"Tim Beringer","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tim","middleName":"","lastName":"Beringer","suffix":""},{"id":466351480,"identity":"c87b5343-037d-4454-9f10-1af7b712176f","order_by":3,"name":"Timothy Searchinger","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2798-173X","institution":"Princeton University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Timothy","middleName":"","lastName":"Searchinger","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-16 07:16:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6678069/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6678069/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":88973579,"identity":"9103ec49-b46f-4099-be1a-70cfab5c5cbb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-13 09:58:55","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":792478,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"WirseniusThefullclimatecostsofagricultureinclforegoneCstorageCORRECTED.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6678069/v1_covered_8b38229c-e266-4d54-8453-af474c720ccf.pdf"},{"id":83954234,"identity":"84f22f36-2270-4599-a25b-31023449590e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-05 02:43:57","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":4356000,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information to the article The full climate costs of agriculture including foregone land carbon storage","description":"","filename":"WirseniusSupplementaryInformation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6678069/v1/8bf2f66f4e12a44e56d55670.pdf"},{"id":83954235,"identity":"8f2fce38-82ec-49e3-98a3-af88f32c2d4d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-05 02:43:57","extension":"xlsx","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":6130742,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Data S1","description":"","filename":"WirseniusDataS1.xlsx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6678069/v1/a4b3573069f8907a9a741c44.xlsx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"The full climate costs of agriculture including foregone land carbon storage","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6678069/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6678069/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Estimates of the climate costs of agriculture typically do not count lost carbon storage from native vegetation on existing agricultural land. By assigning no climate cost or benefit to activities that increase or decrease demand for agricultural land, these estimates effectively treat such land as “free” from a climate perspective. Here, we produce comprehensive estimates of the full climate costs of agricultural products, including foregone carbon storage, for 270 products in 14 world regions or major agricultural countries. We also incorporate production emissions estimates that are physically consistent with each other and with national agricultural statistics, differing substantially from prior estimates in methods, comprehensiveness and results. When including the cost of foregone carbon storage, the global annualized climate cost of agriculture of ~34 Gt CO₂ eq/year matches energy emissions and is 3.5x typical estimates. Only ¼ of this cost occurs to produce crops consumed directly as food, and ~57% is for ruminant products. Differing regional costs reveal potential adverse effects of outsourcing production, but using regional versus global carbon costs would not typically change the directional outcomes of potential food policies.","manuscriptTitle":"The full climate costs of agriculture including foregone land carbon storage","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-05 02:43:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6678069/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":false,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nature","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature](http://www.nature.com/nature/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"4bc49a92-a45d-4b4c-b7f6-df9a3231514c","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 5th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":49510067,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"},{"id":49510068,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-10T08:16:55+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-05 02:43:52","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6678069","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6678069","identity":"rs-6678069","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}