Effect of COVID-19 lock down on teenage pregnancies in Northern Uganda: an interrupted time series analysis

Abstract Background: Pregnancy and childbirth complications are the leading cause of death among girls aged 15–19 years globally, with LMICs accounting for 99% of global maternal deaths of women aged 15–49 years (2). Despite teenage pregnancies decline in many developing countries in recent years, the COVID-19 period intensified the problem and altered the trend for most countries, we determine the effect of the COVID-19 lockdown on teenage pregnancies trend in Pakwach district Uganda. Methods: Using the Interrupted time series analysis (ITS), sometimes known as quasi-experimental time series analysis, which is a method of statistical analysis that involve tracking a long-term period before and after a point of intervention. We constructed a time series of first ANC service utilization records for girls aged 10-19 years in Pakwach district and conducted an interrupted series analysis to determine the effect of COVID-19 lockdown on teenage pregnancy in Pakwach district, northern Uganda. We compared the two periods of March 2019 to March 2020 and March 2020 t0 March 2021. Results: Teenage pregnancy trend before the lockdown was decreasing by -0.203 pregnancies per month, but in the first month after the institution of the lockdown (March 20th 2020), there was an increase in the teenage pregnancy rate of 13.9 pregnancies: 95%CI (-33.6 to 61.5) which corresponds to an increase in the monthly trend in teenage pregnancies (relative to the period before COVID-19 lockdown trend) of 1.53 girls per month. Therefore, our finding showed that in this population of Pakwach, the COVID-19 lockdown contributed an 8% increase in teenage pregnancies although the findings were imprecise. Conclusion: Teenage pregnancies increased during the lockdown, and for our study area Pakwach, there was an 8% increase. This slight increase depicted the impact of the pandemic on the teenage pregnancy trend associated with COVID-19 outbreak. The government needs to focus on intervention on reducing this trend to avoid any further increase.