Geospatial population classification across the rural-urban continuum challenge narrative of where most food-insecure people are located

Geospatial population classification across the rural-urban continuum challenge narrative of where most food-insecure people are located | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Analysis Geospatial population classification across the rural-urban continuum challenge narrative of where most food-insecure people are located David Peng, Zane Swanson, Caitlin Welsh, Sara Viviani This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7274285/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global food security policies have long prioritized rural populations under the assumption that those communities are the most food-insecure. However, we estimate that of the 384.1 million food-insecure people living in the five low and middle-income countries evaluated here, most reside in urban and peri-urban areas (302.8 million) compared to rural areas (81.3 million). This challenges decades of rural-focused food security policy. Using an integrated methodology combining FAO's Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) survey with an implementation of the Degree of Urbanization (DEGURBA) using Worldpop gridded population data to produce people estimates across Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Pakistan, and Zambia, we find that only Zambia follows the traditional rural-dominant pattern while also showcasing distinct patterns of food insecurity within each country’s urban-rural continuum. These findings suggest fundamental misalignment between current policy frameworks and the geographic reality of food insecurity, requiring a recalibration of global food security policy. Scientific community and society/Agriculture Social science/Politics and international relations Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files summarytable.csv Dataset 1 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7274285","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Analysis","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":499460098,"identity":"5ad14333-1f84-45c0-b832-665890bf507a","order_by":0,"name":"David Peng","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAuElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDCCAyCigoGBjUQtZ0jWwthGvHoGBr7bzccefp1nZ8/Hf4DxccUvIrRI3jmWbiy7LTmxTSKB2fBsHxFaDG7kmElLbjuQwCbBwCbZ2EOUlvxv0pJzDtiz8R8gWksOm+THhgPAEEhgk2z4QYQWoF/MpBmOgfyS2GzY2ECEFmCIPZP8UWNnL99/+ODDhj9EaGGQYGBg5gGzGBuIjCCgFkaED4iyZRSMglEwCkYaAABJSzbV+xo0SQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2493-0897","institution":"Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"Peng","suffix":""},{"id":499460099,"identity":"55887904-3f70-443b-973a-a9dd4a3a1877","order_by":1,"name":"Zane Swanson","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) - Global Food and Water Security Program","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zane","middleName":"","lastName":"Swanson","suffix":""},{"id":499460100,"identity":"b25069b3-7a99-4930-a77d-597f2bafdfb0","order_by":2,"name":"Caitlin Welsh","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) - Global Food and Water Security Program","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Caitlin","middleName":"","lastName":"Welsh","suffix":""},{"id":499460101,"identity":"0ded64fd-853e-4fa8-bfff-51f0590ca564","order_by":3,"name":"Sara Viviani","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN) - Statistics Division","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sara","middleName":"","lastName":"Viviani","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-01 20:55:33","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7274285/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7274285/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":96248747,"identity":"3ced7d56-e57c-43ec-80f5-231c08d0e29f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-11-19 07:29:07","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":436393,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"foodinsecuritymanuscriptsubmission.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7274285/v1_covered_42e4733c-2d81-4416-a0a6-40253fbc9d68.pdf"},{"id":93105111,"identity":"50725ed3-de01-4b82-a66c-34bb8ad62e3f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-09 06:24:09","extension":"csv","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":3804,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Dataset 1","description":"","filename":"summarytable.csv","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7274285/v1/3dc215aeb46e1445c50752d1.csv"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Geospatial population classification across the rural-urban continuum challenge narrative of where most food-insecure people are located","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7274285/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7274285/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Global food security policies have long prioritized rural populations under the assumption that those communities are the most food-insecure. 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