Distributional Learning is Associated with Modified Risk Preferences

Distributional Learning is Associated with Modified Risk Preferences | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Distributional Learning is Associated with Modified Risk Preferences Boaz Rosenberg, Eran Eldar This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8224106/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Recent studies suggest that the human brain is equipped to learn not only expected outcomes, but entire distributions of possible outcomes. However, the role of this distributional learning in shaping decision-making remains unclear. To investigate this question, we designed two tasks where participants experienced different outcome distributions, estimated their properties, and reported their preferences. In a simplified observation task, participants were able to learn and report the outcome distributions they experienced. Notably, their risk preferences in this task resembled classic patterns from behavioral economics—patterns typically observed when information is provided by description rather than learned through experience. By contrast, in a more ecological choice task, distributional learning was constrained, and these preference patterns were absent. This led us to suggest that distributional learning may play a causal role in preference formation. Computational modeling supported this interpretation: Preferences were best explained by a model in which distributional learning enables the application of a utility function across possible outcomes. These findings suggest distributional learning may have a critical influence on preference formation, offering new insight into the computational foundations of human decision-making. Social science/Psychology/Human behaviour Social science/Economics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterialsDistributionalLearningisAssociatedwithModifiedRiskPreferences.pdf Supplementary Materials Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8224106","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":555090735,"identity":"b2247e3d-7abc-4fb3-97cd-bc126e59064c","order_by":0,"name":"Boaz Rosenberg","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0001-3584-3134","institution":"The Hebrew University of Jeruslaem","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Boaz","middleName":"","lastName":"Rosenberg","suffix":""},{"id":555090736,"identity":"ba5f12ff-b34e-46cc-9bb6-1db1d6827467","order_by":1,"name":"Eran Eldar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hebrew University of Jerusalem","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Eran","middleName":"","lastName":"Eldar","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-11-27 17:00:56","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8224106/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8224106/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":97664229,"identity":"3669e1d0-4e12-4e61-bbc7-abd130df40fd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 08:27:03","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":6921731,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"DistributionalLearningisAssociatedwithModifiedRiskPreferences.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8224106/v1/ec7e532341b0582f850a17b8.pdf"},{"id":97674344,"identity":"7dedcb3b-09f8-4aac-8206-1fba864d6844","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 09:43:00","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3943,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"COMMSPSYCHOL250912.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8224106/v1/3b5627ba95e770941a8ec543.json"},{"id":97664228,"identity":"1928e21a-1199-4941-b122-cd2e6105fc82","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 08:27:03","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":1137074,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryMaterialsDistributionalLearningisAssociatedwithModifiedRiskPreferences.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8224106/v1/17c4cb24c2198b6d150f627c.pdf"},{"id":100366162,"identity":"6deed82e-340b-46c3-86e8-5a55b52e38d4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-01-16 07:56:03","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":6126145,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"DistributionalLearningisAssociatedwithModifiedRiskPreferences.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8224106/v1_covered_738556a0-7aa4-4b6e-a433-85200fcaad26.pdf"},{"id":97664226,"identity":"9a0822b0-971d-4910-95e7-70d0d3ce5d24","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-12-08 08:27:03","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1137074,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Materials","description":"","filename":"SupplementaryMaterialsDistributionalLearningisAssociatedwithModifiedRiskPreferences.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8224106/v1/3a2391b0b31b99c3a1efd773.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Distributional Learning is Associated with Modified Risk Preferences","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8224106/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8224106/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Recent studies suggest that the human brain is equipped to learn not only expected outcomes, but entire distributions of possible outcomes. However, the role of this distributional learning in shaping decision-making remains unclear. To investigate this question, we designed two tasks where participants experienced different outcome distributions, estimated their properties, and reported their preferences. In a simplified observation task, participants were able to learn and report the outcome distributions they experienced. Notably, their risk preferences in this task resembled classic patterns from behavioral economics—patterns typically observed when information is provided by description rather than learned through experience. By contrast, in a more ecological choice task, distributional learning was constrained, and these preference patterns were absent. This led us to suggest that distributional learning may play a causal role in preference formation. Computational modeling supported this interpretation: Preferences were best explained by a model in which distributional learning enables the application of a utility function across possible outcomes. These findings suggest distributional learning may have a critical influence on preference formation, offering new insight into the computational foundations of human decision-making.","manuscriptTitle":"Distributional Learning is Associated with Modified Risk Preferences","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-12-08 08:26:58","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8224106/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"3f1663c6-3922-4af1-8a12-bb7aaa93363b","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 8th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":59072190,"name":"Social science/Psychology/Human behaviour"},{"id":59072191,"name":"Social science/Economics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-01-13T08:42:05+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-12-08 08:26:58","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8224106","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8224106","identity":"rs-8224106","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}