Dynamic Drivers of Precipitation Variability in the Tarim River Basin

Dynamic Drivers of Precipitation Variability in the Tarim River Basin | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Dynamic Drivers of Precipitation Variability in the Tarim River Basin xiaoyu li, Xianyu YANG, Lin ZHAO, Peili WU, Hao CHEN, Biao LONG, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8150919/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Tarim River Basin has experienced a wetting trend since the 1960s, but its mechanisms remain unclear. Using CN05.1 observations and ERA5 reanalysis for 1961–2022, this paper attempts to explain the long-term trends of seasonal precipitation by: (i) decomposing variability into frequency (number of rainy days) changes and intensity changes, (ii) clarifying atmospheric stratification (relative humidity, static stability, and vertical motion), (iii) diagnosing vertically integrated moisture transport from convergent and advective terms, and (iv) quantifying boundary moisture budget. Precipitation increases in all seasons, but largest growth is in summer dominated by amplified rainfall intensity. Heavier summer rainfall is accompanied by increased low-level humidity, reduced static stability below 400 hPa, and persistent upward motion. These changes are driven by a strengthened easterly jet in the lower troposphere along the eastern Tarim River Basin and southerly moist inflow from the northern Tibetan Plateau that converges towards cross‑mountain westerlies. Changes in other seasons are relatively small. From a moisture budget perspective, the background westerly flow plays a notable, but not dominant, role in the moisture contribution to the basin. Effective moisture transports mainly come from the southern boundary and the summer easterly corridor. Future changes of precipitation in the region will, therefore, crucially depend on variability and change of large-scale atmospheric circulation. Tarim river basin Seasonal precipitation Atmospheric boundary layer Moisture transport Vertically integrated moisture flux divergence Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 16 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Minor Revision 01 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 05 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 04 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 02 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 29 Nov, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8150919","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":555570419,"identity":"f0cead28-7c4c-46eb-9947-4b33ad47a44e","order_by":0,"name":"xiaoyu 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