Eliciting and Modeling Probability Forecasts of Continuous Events
preprint
OA: closed
Abstract
We report the results of two experiments exploring methods for eliciting and scoring forecasts of continuous quantities. The results recommend binned probability elicitations over percentile elicitations and self-set bins.
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- europepmc
- last seen: 2026-05-20T01:45:00.602351+00:00