Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations of a poly-infection model with COVID-19, pneumonia and influenza

Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations of a poly-infection model with COVID-19, pneumonia and influenza | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations of a poly-infection model with COVID-19, pneumonia and influenza Bernard Asamoah Afful, Mordecai Opoku Ohemeng, Patrick Ocran, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6573718/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The circulation of multiple pathogens, such as COVID-19, pneumonia, and influenza, presents a significant public health challenge, yet most epidemiological models focus solely on single-pathogen or co-infection dynamics. While co-infections, interactions between two pathogens, have been studied extensively, higher-order poly-infections, where three or more diseases interact, are under-explored despite their real-world implications. This study addresses this gap by developing a novel compartmental model to analyze the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, pneumonia, and influenza under poly-infection conditions. Our model incorporates disease interactions, vaccination effects, and waning immunity to evaluate how poly-infection influences outbreak severity. We performed numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis, analyzing the equilibrium points’ stability and identifying critical parameters driving disease spread. Our findings highlight that to minimize the spread of the poly-infection of COVID-19, 1 pneumonia, and influenza, public health strategies should be geared toward decreasing contact rates and increasing vaccination efforts. The results provide actionable information for policymakers, emphasizing the need for integrated disease surveillance, targeted vaccination campaigns, and adaptive public health strategies to mitigate the impact of concurrent outbreaks. Poly-infection co-infection COVID-19 influenza pneumonia sensitivity analysis Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6573718","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":462596333,"identity":"8a9a1c25-1c88-4ad0-b412-c8cfee6466bb","order_by":0,"name":"Bernard Asamoah Afful","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA5ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAwjFDEQHHzA8qIBwJYjTwpZswJBwhmQtiW1EaDFn73324Oceawb+NmY2icR5h+0NDjAfvM2DR4tlz3Fzw55n6QwSx0Bath1O3HCALdkanxaDG2lsEjwHDjMw3O8/BtKSYHCAx0war5b7z9gk/wC1yINtmQNyGP83/FpusLFJg2wxAGtpOMy44QAPG14tlj1pbNIyB9J5DI8xM1skHEtPnHmYzdhyDh4t5uzH2CTfHLCWkzvGzHjjQ421Pd/x5oc33uDRAgNILmEmQvkoGAWjYBSMAvwAAPe8RvC4qww1AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Utah State University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Bernard","middleName":"Asamoah","lastName":"Afful","suffix":""},{"id":462596334,"identity":"6c24c5e3-a565-4207-a697-ccad1469d296","order_by":1,"name":"Mordecai Opoku Ohemeng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Idaho","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mordecai","middleName":"Opoku","lastName":"Ohemeng","suffix":""},{"id":462596335,"identity":"2bc297ac-4c6b-4c95-975f-fd193a4f1ec3","order_by":2,"name":"Patrick Ocran","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Utah State University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Patrick","middleName":"","lastName":"Ocran","suffix":""},{"id":462596336,"identity":"bacf448f-001b-4f22-a4f7-3edeea958719","order_by":3,"name":"Alfred Tan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of L’Aquila","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Alfred","middleName":"","lastName":"Tan","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-05-01 18:23:09","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6573718/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6573718/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":84309604,"identity":"f64be436-a236-49fc-a45b-31f9833d4132","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-10 12:09:08","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":4418593,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Affulmanuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6573718/v1_covered_e83daf40-a210-42f5-8aa3-a89a21a0ad0a.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations of a poly-infection model with COVID-19, pneumonia and influenza","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Poly-infection, co-infection, COVID-19, influenza, pneumonia, sensitivity analysis","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6573718/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6573718/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The circulation of multiple pathogens, such as COVID-19, pneumonia, and influenza, presents a significant public health challenge, yet most epidemiological models focus solely on single-pathogen or co-infection dynamics. 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