Evaluation of climate change and land-use impacts on groundwater dynamics in the Bari Doab Canal System

Abstract Globally, groundwater depletion has grown to be a serious issue, as land and water resources have been gravely exhausted due to the rising population's desire for food and water. The current research evaluated the decline in groundwater caused by land use and climate change in the Bari Doab Canal, Pakistan utilizing the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) collection of several global climate models (GCMs). Cellular Automata Markov Chain model was used to create LULC maps of 2030, 2060, and 2100 by analyzing the changes based on satellite imagery gathered in 2000, 2010, and 2020. Groundwater extraction was estimated through the deficit of effective rainfall and net canal water use from evapotranspiration after compensating soil moisture storage changes. GCM projected rainfall and temperature under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP2 and SSP5 was downscaled using the CMhyd model till the end of the twenty-first century. The precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and crop water requirements were anticipated to increase by downscaled projections of a selected model (MPI-ESM1-2-HR) till the end of the twenty-first century compared to the baseline period (1981–2020). The groundwater table had dropped by 0.62 meters annually through 16 years (2005–2020). The model simulated outcomes demonstrated the detrimental effects of the expected changes in land use and climate on the groundwater in Bari Doab. This study supports the development of appropriate adaptation measures by policymakers and stakeholders to mitigate the detrimental impacts of climate and land use change on groundwater dynamics.