Understanding the Changing Dynamics of the 2016-2022 Nevados de Chillán, Chile Eruption through Erupted Volume and Surface Deformation

Understanding the Changing Dynamics of the 2016-2022 Nevados de Chillán, Chile Eruption through Erupted Volume and Surface Deformation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Understanding the Changing Dynamics of the 2016-2022 Nevados de Chillán, Chile Eruption through Erupted Volume and Surface Deformation Elizabeth Eiden, Matthew E. Pritchard, Paul Lundgren, Loreto Córdova, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6130779/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 19 Aug, 2025 Read the published version in Bulletin of Volcanology → Version 1 posted 6 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Improving forecasting of eruptive hazards is a top priority of the volcanological community and can be difficult to do in complex eruptions. From 2016-2022, Nevados de Chillán, Chile, underwent a complex eruption with multiple transitions between effusive and explosive activity, resulting in four domes and eight lava flows. We combine a decade of InSAR time series data with 4.5 years of data at five local GNSS stations to define three distinct periods of co-eruptive surface subsidence and three periods of co-eruptive uplift. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to invert for the source depth and volume change necessary to cause each surface deformation period. We find evidence for the third uplift phase source to be slightly deeper (6.4 ± 0.4 km below ground level) compared to the first two periods of uplift (4.4 ± 0.2 km and 4.8 ± 0.1 km below ground level). We used topographic data from helicopter overflights and Pléiades and Maxar satellites to derive the total erupted volume (~1.1 x 107 m3) between December 2017 and November 2022. We compare these data sets with optical imagery from Planet satellites, thermal time series from Terra’s ASTER instrument, and seismic data. Each effusive phase begins with larger effusion rates that taper off. The episodes of surface uplift coincide with increases in effusion rate and seismicity, indicating a new supply of magma. The combination of ground-based, airborne, and satellite-derived datasets provides dense spatial and temporal information on eruption evolution. Volcano deformation InSAR time series analysis Kinematic modeling Erupted volume Full Text Supplementary Files Supplemental.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 19 Aug, 2025 Read the published version in Bulletin of Volcanology → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Moderate revision (possibly re-reviewed) 02 Jun, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 May, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 05 May, 2025 Editor invited by journal 07 Mar, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 04 Mar, 2025 First submitted to journal 28 Feb, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6130779","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":452184958,"identity":"f78e1633-371e-43b0-ad5c-12a37d8f447e","order_by":0,"name":"Elizabeth Eiden","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAwklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACxgcfKiCMAw+ARAMRWpgNZ5yBsA4kEKmFTZizjRQt/GKHjzEzzrOTM5/dfACoxUZ2wwECWiRnp6U9LtyWbCxz51gCUEuaMUEtBrdzzI1nbjuQOEMixwCo5XAiQS32t/O/SfPOAWnJ/wDU8p+wFgPpHDZp3gawLSDvHyCsReJ2mrHhjGPJxhISaUCHGSQbzySkhX928sMHH2rs5CQkQIwKO9k+QlrQ3Uma8lEwCkbBKBgFOAAAnZ1H51wW/igAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1904-7293","institution":"Cornell University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Elizabeth","middleName":"","lastName":"Eiden","suffix":""},{"id":452184959,"identity":"190c2799-e909-4258-bbd3-787881386f07","order_by":1,"name":"Matthew E. 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