Is Large-Scale Rapid CoV-2 Testing a Substitute for Lockdowns?

Background: Various forms of contact restrictions have been adopted in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Around February 2021, rapid testing appeared as a new policy instrument. Some claim it may serve as a substitute for contact restrictions. We study the strength of this argument by evaluating the effects of a unique policy experiment: In March and April 2021, the city of Tubingen set up a testing scheme while relaxing contact restrictions.Methods: We compare case rates in Tubingen county to an appropriately identified control unit. We employ the synthetic control method. We base interpretations of our findings on an extended SEIR model.Findings: The experiment led to an increase in the reported case rate. This increase is robust across alternative statistical specifications. This is also due to more testing leading initially to more reported cases. An epidemiological model that corrects for ’more cases due to more testing’ and ’reduced testing and reporting during the Easter holiday’ confirms that the overall effect of the experiment led to more infections.Interpretation: The number of rapid tests were not sufficiently high in this experiment to compensate for more contacts and thereby infections caused by relaxing contact restrictions.Funding: None to declare.Declaration of Interest: None to declare.Ethical Approval: The experiment, while approved by the state government, was devised jointly by the town's major and the Corona commissioner of Tubingen county.