Marine heatwaves disrupt the culling of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish on the Great Barrier Reef

Marine heatwaves disrupt the culling of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish on the Great Barrier Reef | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Marine heatwaves disrupt the culling of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish on the Great Barrier Reef Kailash Cook, Christina Skinner, Yves-Marie Bozec, Peter Mumby This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7527715/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 12 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Coral Reefs → Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Crown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS) predation poses an enduring threat to coral health on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), driving substantial investment in research and control efforts. However, how CoTS respond to heat stress in-situ remains uncertain, limiting our ability to optimise control efforts. We analysed 33 years of CoTS control records, including pre-culling surveys (manta tows) and cull data, with satellite-derived thermal stress metrics to investigate how heat stress influences CoTS detections and detectability patterns across the GBR. CoTS detections on pre-culling surveys declined significantly with cumulative heat stress, decreasing by 22% per °C-week increase in Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) to a maximum absolute decrease of 95% at 12°C-weeks. Cull data showed 9–14% fewer CoTS culled per dive per °C-week depending on size. These patterns underpin a seasonal response: CoTS culling efficiency peaks in winter and declines in summer, with deeper and longer summer troughs under higher annual heat stress. Culling is triggered when pre-culling surveys meet thresholds for CoTS feeding scars or abundance. We find the failure rate—cases where no CoTS are later encountered—is higher (50%) when culls are triggered by scars than by sightings (36%), indicating scars are a less reliable indicator. Finally, while coral and CoTS populations often exhibit a dynamic balance on controlled reefs, this equilibrium deteriorates when heat stress exceeds ~ 6°C-weeks, leading to accelerated coral loss compounded by CoTS presence. This highlights the need for adaptive management strategies that incorporate seasonal and thermal shifts in CoTS behaviour, especially as ocean warming intensifies. CoTS control Heat stress Degree heating weeks (DHW) Feeding scars CoTS detection Catch-per-unit-effort Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 12 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Coral Reefs → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 06 Jan, 2026 Reviews received at journal 06 Jan, 2026 Reviews received at journal 22 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 18 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 16 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 10 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 10 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 03 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7527715","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":535025430,"identity":"473bbc13-8008-48f0-a82e-690c38655812","order_by":0,"name":"Kailash 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Reef","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"coral-reefs","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"core","sideBox":"Learn more about [Coral Reefs](http://link.springer.com/journal/338)","snPcode":"338","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/338/3","title":"Coral Reefs","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"CoTS control, Heat stress, Degree heating weeks (DHW), Feeding scars, CoTS detection, Catch-per-unit-effort","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7527715/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7527715/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eCrown-of-Thorns Starfish (CoTS) predation poses an enduring threat to coral health on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), driving substantial investment in research and control efforts. However, how CoTS respond to heat stress \u003cem\u003ein-situ\u003c/em\u003e remains uncertain, limiting our ability to optimise control efforts. We analysed 33 years of CoTS control records, including pre-culling surveys (manta tows) and cull data, with satellite-derived thermal stress metrics to investigate how heat stress influences CoTS detections and detectability patterns across the GBR. CoTS detections on pre-culling surveys declined significantly with cumulative heat stress, decreasing by 22% per \u0026deg;C-week increase in Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) to a maximum absolute decrease of 95% at 12\u0026deg;C-weeks. Cull data showed 9\u0026ndash;14% fewer CoTS culled per dive per \u0026deg;C-week depending on size. These patterns underpin a seasonal response: CoTS culling efficiency peaks in winter and declines in summer, with deeper and longer summer troughs under higher annual heat stress. Culling is triggered when pre-culling surveys meet thresholds for CoTS feeding scars or abundance. We find the failure rate\u0026mdash;cases where no CoTS are later encountered\u0026mdash;is higher (50%) when culls are triggered by scars than by sightings (36%), indicating scars are a less reliable indicator. Finally, while coral and CoTS populations often exhibit a dynamic balance on controlled reefs, this equilibrium deteriorates when heat stress exceeds\u0026thinsp;~\u0026thinsp;6\u0026deg;C-weeks, leading to accelerated coral loss compounded by CoTS presence. This highlights the need for adaptive management strategies that incorporate seasonal and thermal shifts in CoTS behaviour, especially as ocean warming intensifies.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Marine heatwaves disrupt the culling of Crown-of-Thorns Starfish on the Great Barrier Reef","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-30 05:03:03","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7527715/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-01-06T21:45:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-01-06T08:39:55+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-22T07:23:29+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"330389635902388305726701387507511140531","date":"2025-10-19T00:20:45+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"80613904893460904910249903018323827525","date":"2025-10-16T06:49:25+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-10-16T06:44:09+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-09-10T10:05:19+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-09-10T08:02:39+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Coral Reefs","date":"2025-09-03T13:42:31+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"coral-reefs","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"core","sideBox":"Learn more about [Coral Reefs](http://link.springer.com/journal/338)","snPcode":"338","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/338/3","title":"Coral Reefs","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5b7fca55-236f-47c0-af4a-505f88dfdcd3","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 30th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-16T16:06:15+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-7527715","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-026-02824-z","journal":{"identity":"coral-reefs","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Coral Reefs"},"publishedOn":"2026-02-12 15:58:45","publishedOnDateReadable":"February 12th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-30 05:03:03","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s00338-026-02824-z","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-026-02824-z","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7527715","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7527715","identity":"rs-7527715","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}