DAPS 2nd Workshop Presentation: Assessing the impact of 1815 Tambora volcanic eruption on surface temperature and precipitation variabilities in Indonesia using MPI-ESM simulation outputs

The impact of the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 on meteorological parameters in Indonesia is not widely known because of the absence of weather observation data at that time. In this study we examine the impact of the eruption in Indonesia by using one of the Max-Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) simulation output scenarios which previously selected by comparing it to the proxy data δ^18 O of the Porites sp. coral. This study examines the impacts of temperature and precipitation variability in the period of June-July-August (JJA) and December-February-January (DJF). The δ^18 O data is compared with the reanalysis data to see whether the δ^18 O data is capable of recording temperature and precipitation changes or not. The model data is then compared with the δ^18 O data to see the consistency between them. Consistency analysis is performed to select the most representative model scenario. In addition, a comparison of the Niño 3.4 index from proxy reconstruction data with the Niño 3.4 index which was derived from the model to analyze the effect of ENSO on the occurrence and after Tambora eruption. The model simulations show well consistency over surface temperature during JJA, but has not been able to accurately describe the precipitation anomaly after the eruption. Based on the simulation results, the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815 caused a decrease in temperature of 0.4-1°C in Indonesia in 1816-1817 and the temperature returned to normal in the years after.