Subsurface snowmelt buffers river response to warming in the Tibetan Plateau

Subsurface snowmelt buffers river response to warming in the Tibetan Plateau | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Subsurface snowmelt buffers river response to warming in the Tibetan Plateau Xiongpeng Tang, Zhanliang Zhu, Jianyun Zhang, Chao Gao, Silong Zhang, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8787988/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Warming across the Tibetan Plateau is reorganizing snow dynamics and the resulting runoff regime, with increasingly direct implications for regional freshwater security. However, the distinct roles of rapid surface versus delayed subsurface snowmelt in regulating river flow remain poorly understood. Here, we apply a dual-phase tracking framework to decipher surface and subsurface snowmelt contributions to runoff across ten headwater basins from 1968-2018. Results show that surface snowmelt delivers a short spring pulse, contributing over 25% of total runoff during the melt peak, whereas subsurface snowmelt provides sustained recharge year-round and primarily constitutes winter discharge. Over the past five decades, the centroid timing of surface snowmelt advances significantly at ~6.8 days per decade across ~93% of grid cells, while subsurface snowmelt timing remains nearly stationary. Consequently, the timing of total runoff shifts only modestly (0–3 days per decade), demonstrating strong timing buffering by subsurface pathways that retain and gradually release meltwater. This buffering softens late-season low-flow declines in some basins, yet basin dependence limits its capacity against warming-driven drying. These results underscore the critical role of subsurface meltwater in regulating river flow timing in a warming climate, with implications for water resource management in cryospheric regions. Earth and environmental sciences/Hydrology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.docx Supplementary information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8787988","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":586876594,"identity":"86eaaf85-c975-4e00-bb0a-b02196fda3f8","order_by":0,"name":"Xiongpeng 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