An Open U-Shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve Trajectory in Emerging Cambodia

An Open U-Shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve Trajectory in Emerging Cambodia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article An Open U-Shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve Trajectory in Emerging Cambodia Pahlaj Moolio, Md Jamirul Haque, Kim Geok Tan, Chia Pao Liew This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9249633/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis remains a focal point in research on sustainability transition, yet empirical evidence remains bifurcated as national development trajectories in emerging economies often deviate from theoretical models. This study examines Cambodia’s transition to a lower-middle-income economy to determine if an inherent link exists between economic growth and environmental improvement. To accomplish this, the use of the Autoregulative Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test, based on 1990 through 2024 annual time series data, will be conducted on CO2 emissions, GDP per capita, industrial value-added, and the impact of the Kyoto Protocol. In contrast to the regular “inverted-U” fashion most other countries possess, results illustrate that Cambodia has an opposed “open-U shape” with the calculated trough of $ 466.86 GDP per capita. Since the economy has already exceeded this point in the mid-2000s, the current environmental degradation is characterized by a monotonic relationship where the rate of environmental improvement is lower than the rate of economic growth. Specifically, for each 1% rise in industrial value-added, CO2 emissions rise by 0.29%. The high Error Correction Term (-0.84) reflects how rapidly economic growth responds to external shocks in reaching long-run equilibrium. Although, the Kyoto Protocol has strengthened institutional and climate resilience frameworks in Cambodia, it remains to be seen whether it would also reduce the “velocity gap” between economic growth and sustainable development. To do this, Cambodia must move from basic policy alignment to strategic “greening” of its industrial hubs. This study proves that exceeding certain economic thresholds does not automatically result in better environmental outcomes. ARDL CO2 Emissions Cambodia Economic Growth Industrialization Kyoto Protocol U-shaped Curve Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 27 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 25 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 15 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 12 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 10 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 10 Apr, 2026 Editor invited by journal 02 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 01 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 01 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9249633","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":623892945,"identity":"5d94b7ee-2a66-4836-9710-299482eb0ade","order_by":0,"name":"Pahlaj Moolio","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Paragon International University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pahlaj","middleName":"","lastName":"Moolio","suffix":""},{"id":623892946,"identity":"a9456d51-c5b1-4d94-83a5-16b00e082d8f","order_by":1,"name":"Md Jamirul Haque","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"National University of Management","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Md","middleName":"Jamirul","lastName":"Haque","suffix":""},{"id":623892947,"identity":"857dfbd7-6bf1-4257-90fd-1ada081311d6","order_by":2,"name":"Kim Geok Tan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAuUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACCTBZgcwhrIUZSJ4hWQtjGylaJPvXH/xcOG9btMEB5oO3eRi2JTYQ0iIt8ZhZeua227kbDrAlW/Mw3CasRU7iMIM0L1gLj5k0sVqYf/POAWnh/0acFmn+ZjZp3gawLWzEaZGcwWxmzXPsdu7Mw2zGlnMMbhsT1CJx/uDj2zw1t3P7jjc/vPGm4rYsQS0MEglQBihKGQwYHAlr4T+AyrcnqGMUjIJRMApGHAAAu9U95oO1lSIAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Multimedia University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kim","middleName":"Geok","lastName":"Tan","suffix":""},{"id":623892948,"identity":"99f5cf52-a6ab-46d9-a70d-9ae419747edc","order_by":3,"name":"Chia Pao Liew","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xiamen University Malaysia","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chia","middleName":"Pao","lastName":"Liew","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-28 04:38:55","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9249633/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9249633/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":107308631,"identity":"e621134e-a239-43d4-abc5-47e18086349e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-20 08:45:44","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":706149,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"CambodiaCO21April.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9249633/v1_covered_31a34bbb-3c03-42d0-adfc-9ff23e72f6b4.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"An Open U-Shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve Trajectory in Emerging Cambodia","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"disu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Sustainability](https://www.springer.com/43621)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"ARDL, CO2 Emissions, Cambodia, Economic Growth, Industrialization, Kyoto Protocol, U-shaped Curve","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9249633/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9249633/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe \u003cem\u003eEnvironmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)\u003c/em\u003e hypothesis remains a focal point in research on sustainability transition, yet empirical evidence remains bifurcated as national development trajectories in emerging economies often deviate from theoretical models. This study examines Cambodia\u0026rsquo;s transition to a lower-middle-income economy to determine if an inherent link exists between economic growth and environmental improvement. To accomplish this, the use of the Autoregulative Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test, based on 1990 through 2024 annual time series data, will be conducted on CO2 emissions, GDP per capita, industrial value-added, and the impact of the Kyoto Protocol. In contrast to the regular \u0026ldquo;inverted-U\u0026rdquo; fashion most other countries possess, results illustrate that Cambodia has an opposed \u0026ldquo;open-U shape\u0026rdquo; with the calculated trough of \u003cspan\u003e$\u003c/span\u003e466.86 GDP per capita. Since the economy has already exceeded this point in the mid-2000s, the current environmental degradation is characterized by a monotonic relationship where the rate of environmental improvement is lower than the rate of economic growth. Specifically, for each 1% rise in industrial value-added, CO2 emissions rise by 0.29%. The high Error Correction Term (-0.84) reflects how rapidly economic growth responds to external shocks in reaching long-run equilibrium. Although, the Kyoto Protocol has strengthened institutional and climate resilience frameworks in Cambodia, it remains to be seen whether it would also reduce the \u0026ldquo;velocity gap\u0026rdquo; between economic growth and sustainable development. To do this, Cambodia must move from basic policy alignment to strategic \u0026ldquo;greening\u0026rdquo; of its industrial hubs. This study proves that exceeding certain economic thresholds does not automatically result in better environmental outcomes.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"An Open U-Shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve Trajectory in Emerging Cambodia","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-20 08:45:19","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9249633/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-04-27T06:22:47+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-25T16:25:45+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-15T21:54:35+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"194661473929551923197961553406750368244","date":"2026-04-14T12:19:20+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"130623286450895246338837608837926144728","date":"2026-04-13T01:09:14+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"70838630927430070460160679430196040269","date":"2026-04-10T14:51:02+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-04-10T13:00:33+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-04-10T12:53:10+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2026-04-02T12:35:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-04-01T05:26:28+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Discover Sustainability","date":"2026-04-01T05:21:38+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"disu","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Sustainability](https://www.springer.com/43621)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"43e276e8-d2b8-4f88-af3f-c0bb4600f4da","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 20th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"in-revision","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-27T06:39:35+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-20 08:45:19","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9249633","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9249633","identity":"rs-9249633","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}