The Spatial-Temporal Effects of Knowledge Spillovers and R&D Investment on Regional Agricultural Productivity: An Empirical Analysis Based on Province-level Panel Data from China

The Spatial-Temporal Effects of Knowledge Spillovers and R&D Investment on Regional Agricultural Productivity: An Empirical Analysis Based on Province-level Panel Data from China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Spatial-Temporal Effects of Knowledge Spillovers and R&D Investment on Regional Agricultural Productivity: An Empirical Analysis Based on Province-level Panel Data from China Yongqing Zhu, Fengtong Yao This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8945867/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract There is a broad consensus that R&D investment serves as a catalyst for technological advancement. However, the impact of R&D investment on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) varies significantly across research entities, particularly for agricultural Total Factor Productivity (ATFP), where the pronounced spatial spillover effects of knowledge—stemming from agriculture's strong geographical characteristics—complicate R&D's influence on ATFP. This study employs per capita R&D investment across different research entities, which reflects both capital and personnel inputs while distinguishing among entities to assess their temporal and spatial impacts on agricultural productivity. Using provincial panel data (1998–2022) and a progressive analytical approach, static and dynamic spatial econometric models are applied. Considering the heterogeneity of agricultural geographical production conditions and economic conditions, a novel agricultural production geography-based weight matrix is constructed. The results reveal that, statically, Research and Development Institutions (RDI) and Higher Education (HE) show strong direct effects but lack spatial externalities, instead exerting crowding-out effects on ATFP. Dynamically, HE exhibits initial inhibitory and subsequent promoting effects on ATFP, while RDI demonstrate strong negative externalities in the long term. It uncovers the unique impact pathways of R&D investment on ATFP, offering insights for optimizing regional innovation resource distribution. It highlights the need for tailored support policies suited to distinct research institutions, stresses the significance of temporal-spatial coordination in R&D investment, and calls for strengthening cross-regional knowledge-sharing mechanisms to fully realize R&D investment's potential in boosting agricultural innovation. Dynamic spatial Durbin model Static spatial Durbin model R&D Investment Agricultural total factor productivity Spatial spillovers Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8945867","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":599999316,"identity":"70f0a653-8585-4fdc-9fa6-8a229f2a4611","order_by":0,"name":"Yongqing Zhu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Inner Mongolia Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yongqing","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhu","suffix":""},{"id":599999317,"identity":"745c657d-54c1-406f-b036-3d5c0afc27f6","order_by":1,"name":"Fengtong Yao","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAy0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDAC5gMg0saOn5n58APitLAlAImEtGTJdrY0A1K0HGLccJ5HQYIoHQbHmI89/PrjALPxYR4GA4Yam2gitLClG8sk3OEzO8x74AHDsbTcBoJa7veYSUskPGM2O8yXYMDYcJgILcf4vwG1HGbc3MxjIEGkFh42yQ9ALRuYidUieYzNTJohLS1Z4jAwkBOI8QvfMeZnkj9sgFHZf/jwgw81NoS1KBwAJgAeGC+BkHIQkAcayviDGJWjYBSMglEwcgEAQQw/Rclo7zMAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Inner Mongolia Agricultural University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Fengtong","middleName":"","lastName":"Yao","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-23 10:23:45","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8945867/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8945867/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108808040,"identity":"3cb1f2e1-72ff-42ee-bd6e-f8aea680a402","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-08 15:39:24","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":643361,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Idea1ComprehensiveJPA.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8945867/v1_covered_b9e19659-2394-4ffb-8d9b-c7a94d931e2b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The Spatial-Temporal Effects of Knowledge Spillovers and R\u0026D Investment on Regional Agricultural Productivity: An Empirical Analysis Based on Province-level Panel Data from China","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Dynamic spatial Durbin model, Static spatial Durbin model, R\u0026D Investment, Agricultural total factor productivity, Spatial spillovers","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8945867/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8945867/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThere is a broad consensus that R\u0026amp;D investment serves as a catalyst for technological advancement. However, the impact of R\u0026amp;D investment on Total Factor Productivity (TFP) varies significantly across research entities, particularly for agricultural Total Factor Productivity (ATFP), where the pronounced spatial spillover effects of knowledge\u0026mdash;stemming from agriculture's strong geographical characteristics\u0026mdash;complicate R\u0026amp;D's influence on ATFP. This study employs per capita R\u0026amp;D investment across different research entities, which reflects both capital and personnel inputs while distinguishing among entities to assess their temporal and spatial impacts on agricultural productivity. Using provincial panel data (1998\u0026ndash;2022) and a progressive analytical approach, static and dynamic spatial econometric models are applied. Considering the heterogeneity of agricultural geographical production conditions and economic conditions, a novel agricultural production geography-based weight matrix is constructed. 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It highlights the need for tailored support policies suited to distinct research institutions, stresses the significance of temporal-spatial coordination in R\u0026amp;D investment, and calls for strengthening cross-regional knowledge-sharing mechanisms to fully realize R\u0026amp;D investment's potential in boosting agricultural innovation.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The Spatial-Temporal Effects of Knowledge Spillovers and R\u0026amp;D Investment on Regional Agricultural Productivity: An Empirical Analysis Based on Province-level Panel Data from China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-05 23:39:02","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8945867/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5e5417d4-73c1-4235-bc84-70535db0ecfb","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 5th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"decision","content":"Rejected","date":"2026-05-08T14:15:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-05-05T10:09:53+00:00","index":11,"fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-05-04T19:20:21+00:00","index":10,"fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-05-08T14:28:04+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-05 23:39:02","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8945867","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8945867","identity":"rs-8945867","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}