Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Pandemic Putting into consideration Pathogens in the Environment

Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Pandemic Putting into consideration Pathogens in the Environment | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Pandemic Putting into consideration Pathogens in the Environment Nuraddeen suleiman mohd Chamber, shitu Hasssan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4196444/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract We develop a compartmental epidemic mo del which takes into consideration hospitalized individuals and pathogens in the environment that describes a more realistic mathematical model for understanding the trans mission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The next generation matrix approach is used to determine the control reproduction number (R0C) which we found to be 2.76 implying that the pandemic will persist in the absence of strong control measures. Rigorous mathematical analysis is used to study several properties of the model. We also studied the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters to know the parameters that have a high impact on the reproduction number (R0C). The model was parameterized using COVID-19 data published by Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC). The numerical simulation also carried out to verify the theoretical results. The model shows that the hospitalized individuals and pathogens in the environment have positive impact on the control reproduction number (R0C). COVID-19 Model Sensitivity Analysis Reproduction number Nigeria Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4196444","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":286230988,"identity":"60c9b597-197a-4a80-9604-a3f054020216","order_by":0,"name":"Nuraddeen suleiman mohd Chamber","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABFUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJCCAx8MJHjs2xtAbJsEBh4gxYNfB+PBGRU2cgY8B4DshDSitDAf5jmTZmwgkQDScpiwFnP+0wkHZ7YdTtwukcC66eaP83kGZw4wPnjbxpAn74Bdi+WM3A0HPgK17Ox5wHY7J+F2scHZBmbDuW0MxYYHsGsxuMG7AWxLw/EEsJbEDecZ2KR52xgSNzbg0HL+7IbDvCAtB8BazoG0sP/Gq+VA7gaI90+AtRxI3HC2gY0ZpGU+Du8b3MjdAA5kyZ6Dbbdz0pKLJc8cbJacc04icQMuLefPbv4Aikp+9uZjt3Ns7PL4ziQf/PCmzCZxPg6HIQHGBmSGBNDNBLWgA3nCtoyCUTAKRsHIAAB7cm+GbaAFHgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Bayero University Kano","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nuraddeen","middleName":"suleiman mohd","lastName":"Chamber","suffix":""},{"id":286230989,"identity":"c1492fd3-61b1-43e5-b44d-ff2403d9b867","order_by":1,"name":"shitu Hasssan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Bayero University Kano","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"shitu","middleName":"","lastName":"Hasssan","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-03-31 16:17:07","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4196444/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4196444/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":58977332,"identity":"7aaef4e0-e387-49c5-be09-40e7a5cc9a64","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-25 00:47:43","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":671078,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"mathematicalmodellingofCOVID19P1.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4196444/v1_covered_ce3c3af5-18f9-45c8-a622-9372e84318c3.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Pandemic Putting into consideration Pathogens in the Environment","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"COVID-19, Model, Sensitivity Analysis, Reproduction number, Nigeria","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4196444/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4196444/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"We develop a compartmental epidemic mo del which takes into consideration hospitalized individuals and pathogens in the environment that describes a more realistic mathematical model for understanding the trans mission dynamics and control of COVID-19 in Nigeria. 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