The Short and Long Run Dynamics of the Great Gatsby Curve

The Short and Long Run Dynamics of the Great Gatsby Curve | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Short and Long Run Dynamics of the Great Gatsby Curve Diego Battiston, Stephan Maurer, Andrei Potlogea, José V. Rodríguez Mora This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7907948/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The strong evidence in support of the Great Gatsby Curve (i.e. the negative crosssectional relationship between intergenerational mobility and inequality) seems to be at odds with the fact that large increases in inequality in the US have not resulted in decreases in mobility. We tackle this puzzle by measuring, for the first time, a dynamic version of the “Great Gatsby Curve” that relates changes in inequality to changes in intergenerational income mobility. We find that across US counties and during the last century the relationship is weak and unstable over relatively short intervals of two decades, but negative and significant over a longer period of almost a century. The historical record suggests that if the large increase of inequality observed in the US does not reverse, this may result in substantially lower socioeconomic mobility in the long term, even if mobility has not decreased yet. JEL classification: J62, N12, N52, R11 Intergenerational Mobility Inequality Great Gatsby Curve Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7907948","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":540553301,"identity":"bdc31396-c149-423e-ac5e-01b41ed9def2","order_by":0,"name":"Diego Battiston","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Edinburgh","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Diego","middleName":"","lastName":"Battiston","suffix":""},{"id":540553302,"identity":"372c472b-4548-4d77-ab4a-96ee94364ff7","order_by":1,"name":"Stephan Maurer","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAuElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBADOQaGBDDDgGgtxqRrSWwgWov8tMPPpCsq7qX3sycwfvjBcNiYoBaD22lmkmfOFOfO7HnALNnDcNiMsBbpBDPJxraE3A03EhikGRgO2xB22Oz0b5KN/xLS7W8kMP8mSgvD7RygLQ0JCQYSCWwgW4hw2O2cYsuGYwmGM848bLPsMUgn7H2gwzbebKhJkOdvTz5840eFtWEDYZfBAWMDKRE5CkbBKBgFowAfAAChpTgykFoY+gAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Edinburgh","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Stephan","middleName":"","lastName":"Maurer","suffix":""},{"id":540553303,"identity":"5a46771c-b28a-4b20-a739-a23309337d03","order_by":2,"name":"Andrei Potlogea","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Edinburgh","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrei","middleName":"","lastName":"Potlogea","suffix":""},{"id":540553304,"identity":"89030b59-5982-43e7-b0d5-2165ffb2ed11","order_by":3,"name":"José V. 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