Time-Series Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature over Ladakh, India

Abstract Outside of the polar areas, the Himalayan ranges have far more snow. Approximately 17% of the Himalayas and 37% of the Karakoram Mountains are covered in snow. Fluctuations in glacier advancement or retreat are considered sensitive indicators of climatic variations in the earth system. The present study deals with daily gridded (0.25° x 0.25°) data of extracted variables and investigates the recent trends in temperature and precipitation over severe cold regions of Ladakh, Kargil, and Zaskar. Trends were calculated using parametric (simple linear regression) and non-parametric (Mann- Kendall and Sen’s Slope) tests. Abrupt change point detection in a dataset is also calculated using Pettitt's test and is detected after 2010. The result shows that both rainfall and snowfall show an increasing trend in all the regions but the intensity of the increase is different. It is high over Zaskar at the rate of 5.153 mm/year (rainfall) and 0.702 mm/year (snowfall) at a 99.99% confidence level, while precipitation has also increased throughout the study area. Also, the trend of average temperature shows an increasing trend. This recent shift in climatic trends and patterns could have irreversible implications across the study area, resulting in catastrophic outcomes.