Measuring emission intensity of jobs identifies distinct sector challenges for climate policy

Measuring emission intensity of jobs identifies distinct sector challenges for climate policy | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Measuring emission intensity of jobs identifies distinct sector challenges for climate policy Maximilian Koslowski, Oskar Wood Hansen This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6414227/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Paris pledges have yet to translate into effective climate policy as global warming approaches 1.5°C. A major political obstacle to the green transition is the “job-killing” argument, which persists due to public concerns about job losses and the inevitable decline of some sectors. To examine how this challenge varies across sectors, we analyse the emission intensity of employment (CO 2 -eq/job), complementing the traditional indicator – emissions per value added. Using final goods-based accounting, we estimate the domestic emissions and employment in each sector as well as in their supply chains. This reveals the need for policies that balance emission reductions with job losses not just in targeted sectors but throughout the economy. Our results show sectors vary widely in job generation and emission intensity of jobs, implying distinct policy challenges. In response, we propose a sector-specific policy framework with four strategies: Protect & proceed; Keep & decarbonise; Decarbonise or decline; and Let live. These strategies combine three kinds of climate policy to match sector characteristics: carbon pricing, green industrial policy, and just transition measures. By addressing decarbonisation and employment in a balanced way, these strategies can improve public acceptability and enhance the political feasibility of climate action. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change policy Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation industrial policy input-output hypothetical extraction political feasibility public support Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files EmissionIntensityOfJobsSI.docx Supplementary Material for: Measuring emission intensity of jobs identifies distinct sector challenges for climate policy Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6414227","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":447576621,"identity":"ea1aae55-1ea3-48f8-b7e7-444c0a417fcc","order_by":0,"name":"Maximilian Koslowski","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABEklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJCCAwwGFjxAmhmILYCYjeHAB8JaJGBaJMBaDs5gMCBkEUglkhZmHjxadNvPGB66USAhwz+7gdngwx8JOYPzxxIP2+74k2dwgPfgAyxazM6kJRzOATpM4s4B5sSZbRLGBjfSDhzOPWNQbHCALxmbXWYHkg+AtTDcSGA+zNsgkbjtBnvD4dw2g8QNB3jMJLBpOf+wAaxFHqSF5w9Qy/njDYct8Wm5AbXFAKglmYcNqOUA0GGMeLU8g/jF8EZisyHIL/Y30hIO9rYZJ848zGOM1S/nc4w/5/yxsZe7kXxY4sMfGznJ/mPGH362ySX2He8xxBZiSICxAU2AGb/6UTAKRsEoGAW4AQBYAWiH9686PQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Industrial Ecology Programme, Norwegian University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Maximilian","middleName":"","lastName":"Koslowski","suffix":""},{"id":447576622,"identity":"f3b69e3f-2b4a-4cd9-a907-45900e530232","order_by":1,"name":"Oskar Wood Hansen","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0008-3459-1888","institution":"Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Oskar","middleName":"Wood","lastName":"Hansen","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-09 18:15:44","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6414227/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6414227/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":85212931,"identity":"8422b564-8164-4702-8a03-f13ac4bb86e0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-23 12:49:03","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":711099,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"EmissionIntensityOfJobsmain.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6414227/v1_covered_9187aedf-e4cf-4978-870a-83f90419d89b.pdf"},{"id":81360487,"identity":"0b50765e-a47a-47eb-b0a5-8d20d41ec97a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-25 08:24:09","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":1788691,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Material for: Measuring emission intensity of jobs identifies distinct sector challenges for climate policy","description":"","filename":"EmissionIntensityOfJobsSI.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6414227/v1/652af8c2575635831228a5e8.docx"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Measuring emission intensity of jobs identifies distinct sector challenges for climate policy","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"industrial policy, input-output, hypothetical extraction, political feasibility, public support","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6414227/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6414227/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Paris pledges have yet to translate into effective climate policy as global warming approaches 1.5°C. A major political obstacle to the green transition is the “job-killing” argument, which persists due to public concerns about job losses and the inevitable decline of some sectors. To examine how this challenge varies across sectors, we analyse the emission intensity of employment (CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e-eq/job), complementing the traditional indicator – emissions per value added. Using final goods-based accounting, we estimate the domestic emissions and employment in each sector as well as in their supply chains. This reveals the need for policies that balance emission reductions with job losses not just in targeted sectors but throughout the economy. Our results show sectors vary widely in job generation and emission intensity of jobs, implying distinct policy challenges. In response, we propose a sector-specific policy framework with four strategies: Protect \u0026 proceed; Keep \u0026 decarbonise; Decarbonise or decline; and Let live. These strategies combine three kinds of climate policy to match sector characteristics: carbon pricing, green industrial policy, and just transition measures. 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