Collision Probability Analysis of 2024 YR4

Collision Probability Analysis of 2024 YR4 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Short Report Collision Probability Analysis of 2024 YR4 Xin Liu, Xiyun Hou, Haowen Cheng This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6161069/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 8 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 initially appeared to pose a non-negligible collision threat on Earth. This brief communication analyzes its collision risk, beginning with comparing orbit determination results from multiple sources. We examine how observation arc length and the Yarkovsky effect influence impact probability estimates. Finally, we propose incorporating population distribution into the risk assessment to improve its practical relevance. Physical sciences/Astronomy and planetary science Physical sciences/Engineering/Aerospace engineering Collision Probability Assessment Orbit Determination Planetary Defense Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 17 Apr, 2025 Reviews received at journal 11 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Apr, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 08 Apr, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 08 Apr, 2025 First submitted to journal 03 Apr, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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