Attributing extreme forest drought stress to climate change and effects of converting forests in Germany

Attributing extreme forest drought stress to climate change and effects of converting forests in Germany | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Attributing extreme forest drought stress to climate change and effects of converting forests in Germany Thirza W. van Laar, José Licón-Saláiz, Michel Bechtold, Martin Gutsch, and 7 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8408030/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The extreme drought of 2018 has triggered widespread decline of coniferous trees in Germany. It is unclear how much climate change contributes to these observed impacts and if the currently ongoing forest conversion from coniferous to broad-leaved trees is sufficient to alleviate future forest drought stress. We use a novel attribution framework and model simulations to attribute drought stress to climate change and assess the effectiveness of forest conversion as an adaptation measure. Climate change adds 18 (+/- 2, 13 %) days of forest drought stress in 2018 and more than halves the return period of a 2018 event (408 to 168 years). The return period increases by 51 years and decreases by 69 years for a 2018 event under moderate (SSP126) and severe (SSP585) climate change respectively. We show that converting vulnerable conifer forests reduces drought stress of a 2018 event by 16 days (12%). However, increased forest drought stress under high emission scenarios requires further adaptation. Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Forest ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Ecological modelling Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8408030","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":564054957,"identity":"6e3daadc-313f-445e-925b-b2948ff3bb47","order_by":0,"name":"Thirza W. van 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It is unclear how much climate change contributes to these observed impacts and if the currently ongoing forest conversion from coniferous to broad-leaved trees is sufficient to alleviate future forest drought stress. We use a novel attribution framework and model simulations to attribute drought stress to climate change and assess the effectiveness of forest conversion as an adaptation measure. Climate change adds 18 (+/- 2, 13 %) days of forest drought stress in 2018 and more than halves the return period of a 2018 event (408 to 168 years). The return period increases by 51 years and decreases by 69 years for a 2018 event under moderate (SSP126) and severe (SSP585) climate change respectively. We show that converting vulnerable conifer forests reduces drought stress of a 2018 event by 16 days (12%). 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