A Fractional Order COVID-19 Epidemic Transmission Model: Stability Analysis and Optimal Control

In Japan, the first case of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was reported on 15th January 2020 and the number of reported cases has increased rapidly. The main purpose of this work is to study transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Japan 2020. Taking into account the uncertainty due to the incomplete information about the Coronavirus (COVID-19), we have taken the Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SAIR) compartmental model under fractional order framework for our study. In this work, we have studied the local stability of the system at different equilibrium points (disease free and endemic) and calculated epidemic peak in Japan scenario. An optimal control problem has been formulated and studied by controlling `social gathering parameter'.