Recurring Suboptimal Choices Result in Superior Decision Making

Recurring Suboptimal Choices Result in Superior Decision Making | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Social Sciences - Article Recurring Suboptimal Choices Result in Superior Decision Making Supratik Mondal, Dominik Lenda, Jakub Traczyk This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1724502/v4 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 4 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract A vast body of research has indicated that individuals with higher statistical numeracy, in comparison to individuals with lower statistical numeracy, make superior decisions by employing more deliberative processes leading to selecting options with the highest expected value (EV). However, it is not feasible to deliberate every time we make a choice due to cognitive and environmental constraints. In one simulation study and three well-powered, fully-incentivized empirical studies using the decision-from-experience task, we identified conditions where recurring suboptimal choices were more rewarding than a normatively superior strategy. That is, even if individual choices in isolation are considered suboptimal in light of the EV maximization principle, individuals with higher numeracy can adapt their decision strategy in accordance with changes in the task structure, and make faster suboptimal (or random in terms of EV maximization) decisions that result in overall superior performance (e.g., earning more money). We found that individuals who maximized EV without time constraints accumulated higher total gain. However, the trend reversed in the following two studies. Participants who made more suboptimal choices, under time constraints, earned more money than those who spent more time maximizing EV. Importantly, we found that more numerate individuals made significant adjustments to their meta-cognitive decision processes and made more quick suboptimal choices resulting in better overall earnings than less numerate individuals. Finally, our results also indicate that more numerate individuals are better at identifying the changes in the task structure and are more rational in their use of cognitive and environmental resources. Numeracy Optimal decisions Adaptive decision making Expected value Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files RecurringSuboptimalChoices2024Supplement.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 4 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-1724502","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Social Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":186082492,"identity":"f301b2ee-58e6-4cbd-a137-a8b09cca6c77","order_by":0,"name":"Supratik Mondal","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Supratik","middleName":"","lastName":"Mondal","suffix":""},{"id":186082493,"identity":"d24ad67a-70c9-4ec4-8447-fe0f90382609","order_by":1,"name":"Dominik Lenda","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dominik","middleName":"","lastName":"Lenda","suffix":""},{"id":186082494,"identity":"fba33e4f-8df4-492c-9c73-e131dfc72aa4","order_by":2,"name":"Jakub Traczyk","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6ElEQVRIie3RPQrCMBTA8SeFukRdW4p4hciDiFg8iyLURXF1koLgpHZ28gqdOkcCuiiuHe0N3Awo+NnBqekomP+QB4FfSAiATveDFfzPpJWvjQLPJLOU2P7XGZkEzJRQnpcY60VyljeBeNyzRIJbDXmJKy5WRHtOBGPxoIEEPAx5uaMgJjhgCZfFpcgBEN2QE6oixhWocDE4RLaEey5iOtARjMIwsgjwPMQzm3PeRyseXZDQHq6E4i316daI5a1VD4Ktl8hxu7rcLTanTOK/x/S1PL+IPodBsgBA7TMmKXmnIDqdTvd3PQBhz0wZHNlTTgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9145-1998","institution":"SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jakub","middleName":"","lastName":"Traczyk","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2022-06-04 05:15:48","currentVersionCode":4,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1724502/v4","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1724502/v4","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":56205695,"identity":"5d74c0ff-db79-4116-bd10-e2a1e52dbe10","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-09 21:18:29","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2023917,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RecurringSuboptimalChoices2024Final.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1724502/v4_covered_9316b1eb-6b0b-4799-87b4-f858a9e4fdba.pdf"},{"id":56205217,"identity":"7cbe1298-b808-49bb-958d-00a4df43e4bf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-09 21:02:23","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":293913,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RecurringSuboptimalChoices2024Supplement.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1724502/v4/6e85fcbb344861bade969ccc.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eRecurring Suboptimal Choices Result in Superior Decision Making\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Numeracy, Optimal decisions, Adaptive decision making, Expected value","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1724502/v4","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1724502/v4","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eA vast body of research has indicated that individuals with higher statistical numeracy, in comparison to individuals with lower statistical numeracy, make superior decisions by employing more deliberative processes leading to selecting options with the highest expected value (EV). 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