Russia as a Microcosm of Arctic Decarbonization: A Data-Driven Framework for Region- Specific Climate Policy in Federated Systems

Russia as a Microcosm of Arctic Decarbonization: A Data-Driven Framework for Region- Specific Climate Policy in Federated Systems | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Russia as a Microcosm of Arctic Decarbonization: A Data-Driven Framework for Region- Specific Climate Policy in Federated Systems Solomon Ekene Okeke¹, Yuri Pavlovich Khitev¹, Nelson Onyebuchi Nwobi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8652019/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the Russia’s Arctic, accelerates warming twice the current global rate, making it a crucial framework for countries with similar decarbonization policies. This study employed a dynamic approach towards identifying regional heterogeneity by integrating spatial correlation analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and optimization of cost-benefit in climate policies. We observed a clear disparity in Moscow’s CO 2 emissions (24%) associated with aviation activities, and largest mean projection (1,300 kg CO 2 eq) predicted to have considerably higher CO 2 levels than any region. Policy scenario analysis showed that cities with a higher auto footprint total (Ufa, St. Petersburg, and Vladivostok) have a higher value (5.3–5.4%) in total CO 2 compared to cities with lower contributions such as Kaluga, Vladimir, and Tomsk (4.0-4.9%). Using Monte Carlo simulation we modeled regional heterogeneity in Russian cities, the result showed a 15% auto tax reduction in Moscow and coal-to-gas switching grants (20–24%) in Tomsk is cost-effective (benefit-cost ratio 2.1–2.8). Auto tax is the most cost-effective policy as it provides the most CO 2 reduction per unit cost. In Arctic city such as Norilsk whose Arctic Energy Poverty Risk Index (AEPRI = 0.81) has critical risk level, we recommend an immediate transition to waste-heat recycling and geothermal heating to eliminate energy poverty and encourage sustainable development. Beyond 2030, we recommend a transition to Reykjavik and Umea’s clean and resilient climate policies in high-risk regions and other federated systems to ensure equity in energy transitions. Regional Decarbonization Carbon Footprint Policy simulation Arctic Energy Poverty and Energy Transition Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files GraphicAbstractRussiaArcticDecarbonization.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 12 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 27 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 07 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 25 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 24 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Feb, 2026 Editor invited by journal 05 Feb, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 27 Jan, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 27 Jan, 2026 First submitted to journal 20 Jan, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8652019","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":588814938,"identity":"d67995ea-2d3f-4321-afb9-4e5db0edf34d","order_by":0,"name":"Solomon Ekene Okeke¹","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAtklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACHgZmECXHwHyARC3GDGwJJGpJbCBaCz/P4cMGHxjq0rez8Zh9YNxzmLAWyd625MQZDIdzd7bxGM9geEaEFoPzPMaHeRgO5G6432PMwHCAKC38nw//ATrM4BgPsVrO9jAnMzAwJxCvRbLnmLFhD8Nhw51tbMUMCQfSCWvh50l+LPGDoU7enI15M8OHA9aEtYAB4z+gC0GMBCI1QIABSapHwSgYBaNgRAEAwi4zJstqThYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Patrice Lumumba’s Peoples Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Solomon","middleName":"Ekene","lastName":"Okeke¹","suffix":""},{"id":588814939,"identity":"a9458650-a4fa-4a84-90d5-2742a3d58012","order_by":1,"name":"Yuri Pavlovich Khitev¹","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Patrice Lumumba’s Peoples Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yuri","middleName":"Pavlovich","lastName":"Khitev¹","suffix":""},{"id":588814940,"identity":"82a661d3-a7ae-46d2-980d-e7b86a0b7c6b","order_by":2,"name":"Nelson Onyebuchi Nwobi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Patrice Lumumba’s Peoples Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Nelson","middleName":"Onyebuchi","lastName":"Nwobi","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-01-20 18:24:01","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8652019/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8652019/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":103049205,"identity":"23b99205-c922-4d78-b3b5-99607806f16a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-20 07:38:10","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":700629,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"RussiaasaMicrocosmofArcticDecarbonization.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8652019/v1_covered_94cfdb6f-cb88-4725-ac0a-795953c88236.pdf"},{"id":102406580,"identity":"73be0ba0-5df7-4cda-89cb-542f0453c2e1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-11 11:20:00","extension":"docx","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":411673,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"GraphicAbstractRussiaArcticDecarbonization.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8652019/v1/a165c3989e3cdb0060176bdb.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Russia as a Microcosm of Arctic Decarbonization: A Data-Driven Framework for Region- Specific Climate Policy in Federated Systems","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-energy","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"dien","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Energy](https://www.springer.com/43937)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Energy","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Regional Decarbonization, Carbon Footprint, Policy simulation, Arctic Energy Poverty, and Energy Transition","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8652019/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8652019/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the Russia\u0026rsquo;s Arctic, accelerates warming twice the current global rate, making it a crucial framework for countries with similar decarbonization policies. This study employed a dynamic approach towards identifying regional heterogeneity by integrating spatial correlation analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and optimization of cost-benefit in climate policies. We observed a clear disparity in Moscow\u0026rsquo;s CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions (24%) associated with aviation activities, and largest mean projection (1,300 kg CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003eeq) predicted to have considerably higher CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e levels than any region. Policy scenario analysis showed that cities with a higher auto footprint total (Ufa, St. Petersburg, and Vladivostok) have a higher value (5.3\u0026ndash;5.4%) in total CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e compared to cities with lower contributions such as Kaluga, Vladimir, and Tomsk (4.0-4.9%). Using Monte Carlo simulation we modeled regional heterogeneity in Russian cities, the result showed a 15% auto tax reduction in Moscow and coal-to-gas switching grants (20\u0026ndash;24%) in Tomsk is cost-effective (benefit-cost ratio 2.1\u0026ndash;2.8). Auto tax is the most cost-effective policy as it provides the most CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e reduction per unit cost. In Arctic city such as Norilsk whose Arctic Energy Poverty Risk Index (AEPRI\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.81) has critical risk level, we recommend an immediate transition to waste-heat recycling and geothermal heating to eliminate energy poverty and encourage sustainable development. Beyond 2030, we recommend a transition to Reykjavik and Umea\u0026rsquo;s clean and resilient climate policies in high-risk regions and other federated systems to ensure equity in energy transitions.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Russia as a Microcosm of Arctic Decarbonization: A Data-Driven Framework for Region- Specific Climate Policy in Federated Systems","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-11 11:05:33","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8652019/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-05-12T17:46:10+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"43029959266968226544316810607593886050","date":"2026-04-27T15:29:59+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-04-07T22:08:37+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"233021569488110057407138686928035319595","date":"2026-03-29T20:13:20+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-25T12:45:47+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"215765690092679750385713774226064669858","date":"2026-02-24T10:03:48+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"177855244083993392848092558090540516986","date":"2026-02-13T06:09:01+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2026-02-06T13:56:44+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2026-02-05T09:14:39+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2026-01-27T11:08:50+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2026-01-27T11:07:28+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Discover Energy","date":"2026-01-20T17:19:24+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-energy","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"dien","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Energy](https://www.springer.com/43937)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Discover Energy","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"dbf4ba03-e4dd-4a09-bbff-55ea158053a1","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 11th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-05-12T17:46:10+00:00","index":96,"fulltext":""}],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-11T11:05:34+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-11 11:05:33","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8652019","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8652019","identity":"rs-8652019","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}