Nonlinear relationship between ionized calcium and 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis: A retrospective cohort study from MIMIC-IV database

ABSTRACT Background This study aimed to investigate the linear and nonlinear relationships between ionized calcium levels and 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis in the intensive care unit (ICU) and to provide clinicians with a direction for laboratory index testing and a basis for a calcium supplementation program. Methods The data of patients with sepsis were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database, iCa served as the exposure variable, and 28-day mortality served as the outcome variable. The relationship between iCa and 28-day mortality was investigated using multivariate binary logistic regression models, with adjustment for covariates. A generalized additive model (GAM) and smoothed curve fitting were used to investigate the non-linear relationship between iCa and 28-day mortality. A two-piecewise linear model was used to calculate the OR and 95% CI on either side of the inflection point. Results Patients with sepsis (n = 20,417) were included in the analysis, with an overall 28-day mortality rate of 19.73%. Sepsis patients were grouped into quartiles (Q1-Q4) according to ionized calcium levels, and after complete adjustment, the short-term mortality rate of sepsis patients in Q2–Q4 was significantly lower than that in the Q1 group (OR:0.78, 95% CI: 0.70–0.87. OR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.66–0.83. OR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.72–0.9. iCa and 28-day mortality displayed a U-shaped relationship among patients with sepsis. When iCa levels were less than 1.14 mmol/L, each unit increase corresponded to a 79% reduction in the risk of 28-day sepsis mortality(OR: 0.21, 95% CI: 0.13-0.35). Conversely, when iCa exceeded 1.14 mmol/L, each unit increase was linked to an 85% increase in the 28-day mortality risk (OR: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.08-3.16). Conclusion The relationship between iCa and 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis showed a u-shaped curve with an inflection point of 1.14 mmol/L, which is in the range of mild hypocalcemia.