Encouraged to Cheat? How Federal Incentives and Career Concerns Trigger Under-Reporting of COVID-19 Mortality by Subnational Politicians

This paper investigates the political determinants of manipulating COVID-19 mortality in a federation. We use the case of Russia, where the onset of the pandemic overlapped with the scheduled referendum enabling new presidential terms for Vladimir Putin. Regional governors facing proximate elections were more likely to under-report COVID-19 mortality to provide credibility to the federal government's decision to carry out the referendum. We find a similar effect of time to elections on the under-reporting of the preliminary all-cause mortality in data requested by independent media before the referendum.