Secular Increasing Trends in Female Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Taiwan: Does It Coincide with Shifting Fertility Rate Patterns

Background: Thyroid cancer incidence has increased globally in recent decades, especially in females, although its trends in Taiwan have not been studied extensively. This study aimed to investigate changes in female incidence and possible causes of thyroid cancer in Taiwan. Methods: Using the Taiwan Cancer Registry (TCR) Database, age-standardized incidence rates, age-specific incidence rates and birth cohorts were calculated. Correlation between female thyroid cancer incidence and cohort fertility rates were examined. Results: Thyroid cancer incidence increased in Taiwanese female, with age-adjusted rates per 100,000 people increasing from 7.37 during 1995-1999 to 20.53 during 2015-2019, APCs were 5.9% (95% CI, 5.3-6.5). Age-specific incidence rates increased with age, with peak rates occurring at younger ages. The APCs in the 50-54 age group were the highest (6.8%, 95% CI, 6.1-7.5). Incidence rates also increased with later birth cohorts. We observed a significant negative correlation between thyroid cancer incidence and fertility rates in the same birth cohort. Conclusion: We hypothesize that overdiagnosis may be a main reason for the rapidly increasing thyroid cancer incidence in Taiwanese female. Notably, we observed a strong negative correlation between fertility and thyroid cancer incidence. The associations with fertility will be an important subject for future thyroid cancer research.