Climate change impact on the geographic distribution of Nepeta glomerulosa, medicinal species endemic to southwestern and central Asia

Abstract Medicinal plants are valuable species, but their geographic distributions may be limited or exposed to extinction by climate change. Therefore, research on medicinal plants in the face of climate change is fundamental for developing conservation strategies. Distributional patterns for a semi-endemic medicinal plant species, Nepeta glomerulosa, distributed in southwestern and central Asia was determined based on a maximum–entropy algorithm. We evaluated potential geographic shifts in suitability patterns for this species under two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) of climate change for 2050. Our models indicate that the species occupies montane areas under current conditions; transfer of the model to future climate scenarios indicated that suitable areas for the species will decrease, and the species will likely shift towards higher elevations. But the types and degrees of these shifts differ among areas. Our findings can be used to inform conservation management programs for medicinal, endemic, and endangered species in southwestern and central Asia.